TUI1:XETRTUI AG Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time
€6.40
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
TUI AG trades around €6.40, well below its 20‑day SMA of €6.56 and 50‑day SMA of €6.78, signalling short‑term weakness, yet the MACD histogram has turned positive and the RSI sits near 43, hinting at a tentative rebound. The DCF‑derived fair value of €26.6 implies a massive 63% upside, while the P/E of 4.9 and dividend yield of 1.55% (payout Overall, the stock sits in a highly volatile (≈49% 30‑day) environment with low beta (~0.59) but faces sector‑specific cyclical risk. The combination of deep valuation discount, low dividend payout, and a potential geopolitical tailwind supports a cautiously optimistic stance, especially for investors with a longer horizon willing to weather near‑term earnings volatility.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price near support and slight MACD bullish crossover
- Extreme greed sentiment indicating potential overshoot
- Material news on geopolitical easing offering upside catalyst
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation suggests >60% upside
- Low payout ratio and modest dividend provide cash return
- Travel demand recovery expected as pandemic and geopolitical shocks fade
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental undervaluation relative to earnings and assets
- Strategic position in global tourism with diversified brand portfolio
- Potential deleveraging and margin improvement as operations stabilize
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.10%
Profit Margin2.90%
P/E Ratio4.9
ROE38.06%
ROA3.03%
Debt/Equity146.42
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash Flow€1.8B
Free Cash Flow€-634750016
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI42.6
Support€6.08
Resistance€7.37
MA 20€6.56
MA 50€6.78
MA 200€7.86
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61
Valuation
Fair Value€26.63
Target Price€10.45
Upside/Downside63.22%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.55%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.59
Volatility49.09%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.