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TTD:NASDAQThe Trade Desk, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

$27.34

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The Trade Desk trades around $27.34, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of $33 and offers roughly a 19% upside. While the stock carries a high 30‑day volatility of ~69% and a beta above 1.5, its fundamentals remain robust – revenue grew 14% YoY, gross margins sit near 79%, operating margins exceed 30%, and forward earnings are projected at a low 11.5× P/E. Technical signals are mixed: the price sits beneath the 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs indicating a bearish trend, yet the MACD histogram is positive and insider Jeff Green has recently poured $148 M into the shares, boosting short‑term sentiment.
Given the valuation gap, solid cash generation, and growing AI‑driven ad‑tech demand, the stock appears undervalued and positioned for a rebound, though investors should brace for continued price swings and regulatory headwinds.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price below key moving averages signals short‑term weakness
  • Positive MACD histogram suggests emerging momentum
  • High volatility and beta increase downside risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value indicates ~19% upside
  • Strong revenue growth and high margins support earnings expansion
  • Insider buying and improving analyst sentiment

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • AI integration and CTV expansion drive future growth
  • Robust cash flow and low forward P/E relative to peers
  • Competitive moat in programmatic advertising despite regulatory risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth14.30%
Profit Margin15.31%
P/E Ratio30.4
ROE16.32%
ROA6.01%
Debt/Equity17.56
P/B Ratio5.2
Op. Cash Flow$992.7M
Free Cash Flow$601.5M
Industry P/E17.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI48.8
Support$21.08
Resistance$32.90
MA 20$25.99
MA 50$30.40
MA 200$50.12
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value$33.03
Target Price$32.64
Upside/Downside19.37%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.59
Volatility69.00%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.