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TRP:TSXTC Energy Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-13 - not real-time

CA$90.85

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

TC Energy is trading at $90.85, just shy of the $91.5 resistance level, while comfortably above its 20‑day ($86.63) and 50‑day ($87.10) SMAs, indicating short‑term bullish momentum. RSI at 63.9 suggests the stock is approaching overbought territory, and a bullish MACD crossover adds further technical support, though volume is trending downward, which could temper upside. The company posted a solid 6.6% revenue growth and impressive operating margin of 47.5%, but a payout ratio of 101% and a debt‑to‑equity of 166.5 raise concerns about dividend sustainability and balance‑sheet resilience. Recent news highlights a $1.5 billion Columbia Gas expansion and strong Q1 results, reinforcing growth prospects despite a high leverage profile. Valuation metrics are stretched – a PE of 26.8 versus the industry average of 20.9, and a P/B of 3.78 – positioning the stock as potentially overvalued. Volatility over the past 30 days sits at 21.6% with a beta near zero, indicating limited market‑wide correlation but notable price swings. Overall, the stock offers a high dividend yield (3.86%) but the unsustainable payout and heavy debt load suggest caution, while the neutral trend and limited upside beyond $91.5 point to a short‑term hold stance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance with limited upside
  • Decreasing volume and high RSI
  • Bullish MACD but overbought signal

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth and strong operating margins
  • Expansion project adding pipeline capacity
  • Stable cash flow from regulated assets

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High dividend yield offset by unsustainable payout
  • Elevated leverage and debt servicing risk
  • Low beta suggesting limited market correlation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.60%
Profit Margin22.23%
P/E Ratio26.8
ROE11.33%
ROA3.59%
Debt/Equity166.50
P/B Ratio3.8
Op. Cash FlowCA$8.6B
Free Cash FlowCA$267.3M
Industry P/E20.9

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI63.9
SupportCA$81.00
ResistanceCA$91.50
MA 20CA$86.63
MA 50CA$87.10
MA 200CA$77.88
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.36

Valuation

Target PriceCA$91.30
Upside/Downside0.50%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.86%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.05
Volatility21.62%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.