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TROW:NASDAQT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-27 - not real-time

$104.50

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

T. Rowe Price (TROW) trades at $104.5, well below its DCF fair value of $158.8, implying a ~35% upside. The stock’s PE of 11.2 is markedly lower than the industry average of 16.6, reinforcing the undervaluation case. A 5.0% dividend yield coupled with a 54.8% payout ratio and strong free cash flow ($1.88 B) suggests the dividend is sustainable. Revenue grew 5.3% YoY and operating margins remain robust at 37%, highlighting solid profitability. However, Q1 2026 revenue of $1.86 B missed estimates by 0.5% while EPS beat expectations, creating mixed earnings sentiment. The MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, and RSI sits at 64, indicating near‑overbought conditions. Volume trends are decreasing, which could pressure short‑term liquidity. The beta of ~1.1 and 30‑day volatility of 17.7% point to moderate market risk. Asset‑under‑management rose to $1.83 T, supporting future fee growth. Regulatory and geographic risks are modest for a U.S.‑based asset manager, but sector‑specific headwinds from net outflows remain. Overall, the fundamentals and valuation metrics favor a longer‑term buy, while technical signals advise caution in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram and near‑overbought RSI
  • Decreasing volume trend
  • Mixed earnings: EPS beat but revenue miss

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant undervaluation versus DCF and peer PE
  • Steady AUM growth and strong cash generation
  • Sustainable high dividend yield

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Strong balance sheet with low debt and ample cash
  • Consistent dividend payments for income investors
  • Long‑term price appreciation potential as market corrects undervaluation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.30%
Profit Margin28.28%
P/E Ratio11.2
ROE18.69%
ROA10.85%
Debt/Equity3.87
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$1.9B
Industry P/E16.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI64.0
Support$99.58
Resistance$106.93
MA 20$103.18
MA 50$96.97
MA 200$101.08
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.3

Valuation

Fair Value$158.77
Target Price$97.42
Upside/Downside-6.78%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield5.01%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.11
Volatility17.72%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.