TRN:MILTerna S.p.A. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-03 - not real-time
€10.22
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: Terna is trading at €10.22, comfortably above its 20‑day (€10.17) and 50‑day (€10.07) SMAs and the longer‑term 200‑day SMA (€9.46), confirming a bullish price structure. The RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD line has just nudged above its signal line, delivering a bullish histogram signal. Volume is on an upward trend, and the price is holding above the nearest support at €9.64 with resistance near €10.41, suggesting limited downside in the short run.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenues grew 9.6% YoY to €4.10 bn and margins remain robust (gross 81%, operating 45%). The stock yields a solid 3.9% dividend with a 74% payout, but free cash flow is negative, and debt‑to‑equity is high at 173%, flagging balance‑sheet pressure. Valuation appears attractive – the P/E of 18.9 is below the industry average of 21.1 and the DCF‑derived fair value of €11.38 suggests the market is pricing a modest discount. Overall, the blend of a bullish technical setup and a value‑oriented valuation supports a cautiously optimistic stance.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenues grew 9.6% YoY to €4.10 bn and margins remain robust (gross 81%, operating 45%). The stock yields a solid 3.9% dividend with a 74% payout, but free cash flow is negative, and debt‑to‑equity is high at 173%, flagging balance‑sheet pressure. Valuation appears attractive – the P/E of 18.9 is below the industry average of 21.1 and the DCF‑derived fair value of €11.38 suggests the market is pricing a modest discount. Overall, the blend of a bullish technical setup and a value‑oriented valuation supports a cautiously optimistic stance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, MACD bullish)
- Strong dividend yield providing near‑term income
- Support level at €9.64 limiting downside risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth of ~10% and high operating margins
- Undervalued relative to peers (P/E below industry average)
- Attractive dividend yield with reasonable payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Regulated utility business offering stable cash flows
- High debt load and negative free cash flow posing balance‑sheet risk
- Sustained dividend policy supporting shareholder returns
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.60%
Profit Margin27.16%
P/E Ratio18.9
ROE13.33%
ROA4.24%
Debt/Equity173.45
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash Flow€2.5B
Free Cash Flow€-895049984
Industry P/E21.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI55.0
Support€9.64
Resistance€10.41
MA 20€10.17
MA 50€10.07
MA 200€9.46
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.59
Valuation
Fair Value€11.38
Target Price€9.77
Upside/Downside-4.38%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.88%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.03
Volatility15.83%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.