TRGP:NYSETarga Resources, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-28 - not real-time
$263.65
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading at $263.65, comfortably above the 20‑day (≈262.3) and 50‑day (≈250.2) simple moving averages, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. However, the MACD histogram has turned marginally negative and the MACD signal is flagged as bearish, while the RSI sits at a neutral 53.8, suggesting limited upside momentum ahead.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenue is down 10% YoY and free cash flow is negative, while the balance sheet is heavily leveraged (debt‑to‑equity > 580) with virtually no cash cushion. Valuation metrics are stretched – a P/E of ~27 versus an industry average of ~21 and a P/B of ~18.5 – and a discounted cash‑flow model pins fair value near $70, far below the current price. The dividend has been raised 25% to $5.00 annualized, but sustainability is questionable given the cash‑flow shortfall and debt load. Analyst sentiment remains positive (strong‑buy, median target $280.5) but recent earnings misses and a downgrade from Buy to Neutral add caution.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenue is down 10% YoY and free cash flow is negative, while the balance sheet is heavily leveraged (debt‑to‑equity > 580) with virtually no cash cushion. Valuation metrics are stretched – a P/E of ~27 versus an industry average of ~21 and a P/B of ~18.5 – and a discounted cash‑flow model pins fair value near $70, far below the current price. The dividend has been raised 25% to $5.00 annualized, but sustainability is questionable given the cash‑flow shortfall and debt load. Analyst sentiment remains positive (strong‑buy, median target $280.5) but recent earnings misses and a downgrade from Buy to Neutral add caution.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- MACD bearish divergence despite price above SMAs
- Q1 earnings and revenue miss
- Elevated 30‑day volatility (~30%)
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Analyst consensus strong‑buy with median target $280.5
- Price still below resistance level $280
- Dividend increase supporting yield demand
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Heavy debt burden and negative free cash flow
- Stable midstream demand but limited upside valuation
- Potential regulatory headwinds in the energy sector
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-10.20%
Profit Margin12.87%
P/E Ratio26.9
ROE74.10%
ROA9.13%
Debt/Equity585.25
P/B Ratio18.4
Op. Cash Flow$3.7B
Free Cash Flow$-318550016
Industry P/E20.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI53.8
Support$241.86
Resistance$280.00
MA 20$262.32
MA 50$250.24
MA 200$198.97
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.34
Valuation
Fair Value$70.01
Target Price$278.40
Upside/Downside5.59%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.57%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.09
Volatility30.09%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.