TRAK:NYSEReposiTrak, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-05 - not real-time
$10.20
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
ReposiTrak, Inc. (TRAK) is trading at $10.20, just below its recent resistance of $10.54 and well above the DCF‑derived fair value of $5.87, indicating a sizable valuation premium. Technical indicators show a bullish MACD crossover (MACD line > signal line) but an overbought RSI of 71.9, suggesting short‑term pressure near the top of its range. Fundamentally, the company posts an impressive 85% gross margin, 31% operating margin, and a solid cash pile of $28.7 M against minimal debt ($0.4 M), while maintaining a modest dividend yield of 0.8% with a low payout ratio (~20%). The stock’s volatility is high (≈65% 30‑day) and beta is above 1 (≈1.16), reflecting sensitivity to market swings, yet its earnings multiples (PE 27.6) sit below the industry average (PE 39.3), signaling relative value within a high‑growth tech niche.
The recent partnership with Upshop and new compliance contracts (e.g., Erewhon) provide a credible growth catalyst, but the current price implies the market has already priced in much of this upside. With strong cash flow, low leverage, and a sustainable dividend, the company’s fundamentals are sound, but the gap between market price and DCF fair value, combined with elevated volatility, suggests caution for short‑term traders while offering potential for patient investors.
The recent partnership with Upshop and new compliance contracts (e.g., Erewhon) provide a credible growth catalyst, but the current price implies the market has already priced in much of this upside. With strong cash flow, low leverage, and a sustainable dividend, the company’s fundamentals are sound, but the gap between market price and DCF fair value, combined with elevated volatility, suggests caution for short‑term traders while offering potential for patient investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- RSI in overbought territory
- Price approaching short‑term resistance
- High 30‑day volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Valuation premium over DCF fair value
- Strong profit margins and cash generation
- Strategic partnership expanding addressable market
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend and low payout ratio
- High gross and operating margins in a recurring‑revenue model
- Growth potential from compliance and traceability demand
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.70%
Profit Margin30.92%
P/E Ratio27.6
ROE14.88%
ROA8.00%
Debt/Equity0.81
P/B Ratio3.7
Op. Cash Flow$6.9M
Free Cash Flow$4.4M
Industry P/E39.3
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI71.9
Support$6.95
Resistance$10.54
MA 20$8.38
MA 50$8.19
MA 200$12.77
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.57
Valuation
Fair Value$5.87
Target Price$16.00
Upside/Downside56.94%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.80%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.16
Volatility65.38%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.