TR:NYSETootsie Roll Industries, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-27 - not real-time
$37.79
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Tootsie Roll Industries is trading below its 20‑day and 200‑day moving averages, indicating a lack of upward momentum, while the RSI sits in oversold territory, suggesting a potential short‑term bounce. Technical indicators such as a bearish MACD histogram and a price near the identified support level reinforce a cautious outlook, even as volume trends upward. Fundamentally, the company appears overvalued: the discounted cash‑flow model implies a fair value roughly one‑third of the current market price, and forward earnings are projected to be negative, driving an anomalous forward P/E. The dividend yield is modest but the payout ratio remains well within sustainable limits given strong operating cash flow and a net cash position. Overall, the stock faces high short‑term volatility, limited growth prospects, and a valuation gap that makes it less attractive for long‑term investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- RSI in oversold range suggests limited upside
- Price hovering just above key support
- Increasing volume may cushion downside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation far below market price
- Bearish MACD and negative forward EPS
- Modest dividend provides some floor
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Significant overvaluation relative to intrinsic value
- Expected earnings decline and negative forward P/E
- High volatility and limited growth prospects
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.10%
Profit Margin13.55%
P/E Ratio28.4
ROE10.90%
ROA6.06%
Debt/Equity1.43
P/B Ratio3.0
Op. Cash Flow$138.5M
Free Cash Flow$63.7M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI31.5
Support$37.04
Resistance$43.43
MA 20$40.98
MA 50$41.92
MA 200$39.29
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.34
Valuation
Fair Value$14.27
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.96%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.07
Volatility31.98%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.