TPL:NYSETexas Pacific Land Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-28 - not real-time
$364.38
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
At $364.38, Texas Pacific Land Corporation shows a bearish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages beneath longer ones. Over a rolling month the price has lost 12.3%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 44.5 (neutral) with MACD reading bullish. Price has been bracketed by support at $335.10 and resistance at $411.46.
Multiples put this in overvalued territory: 46.5 times earnings against the sector's 21.1. The average analyst target implies 21.3% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 31.2% on a 60.3% profit margin. The 0.65% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk comes out at 6 of a possible 10, a elevated reading. With 30-day volatility of 47.9%, a beta of 0.33 and a maximum drawdown of 36.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 96 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on hold — conviction 2 out of 10.
Multiples put this in overvalued territory: 46.5 times earnings against the sector's 21.1. The average analyst target implies 21.3% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 31.2% on a 60.3% profit margin. The 0.65% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk comes out at 6 of a possible 10, a elevated reading. With 30-day volatility of 47.9%, a beta of 0.33 and a maximum drawdown of 36.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 96 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on hold — conviction 2 out of 10.
Top Market Events
West Texas landowner Texas Pacific Land NYSE:TPL missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q2 CY2026, but sales...Texas Pacific Land Corp TPL posts record quarterly revenue and net income, while advancing multi-gigawatt data center...Seeking Alpha22dTexas Pacific Land Corporation TPL Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptGreetings, and welcome to the Texas...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 390.66
- MACD momentum is positive
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- P/E of 46.5 versus sector average of 21.1
- Trading below the 200-day average of 390.66
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 46.5 versus sector average of 21.1
- Analyst targets imply +21.3% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 60.3% is healthy
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth31.20%
Profit Margin60.32%
P/E Ratio46.5
ROE36.57%
ROA25.81%
Debt/Equity1.08
P/B Ratio16.2
Op. Cash Flow$603.2M
Free Cash Flow$-32836124
Industry P/E21.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI44.5
Support$335.10
Resistance$411.46
MA 20$367.29
MA 50$388.20
MA 200$390.66
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.66
Valuation
Fair Value$217.77
Target Price$442.00
Upside/Downside21.30%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.65%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.33
Volatility47.88%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.