TPL:NYSETexas Pacific Land Corporation analysis
Data as of Sep 17, 2026 - not real-time
- Latest price
- $349.20
- Risk: medium
- 6/10Medium risk
Summary
At $349.20, Texas Pacific Land Corporation shows a bearish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages beneath longer ones. Over a rolling month the price has lost 8.6%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 40.0 (approaching oversold) with MACD reading bearish. Price has been bracketed by support at $346.51 and resistance at $396.78.
Multiples put this in overvalued territory: 44.5 times earnings against the sector's 17.8. The average analyst target implies 26.9% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 31.2% on a 60.3% profit margin. The 0.69% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk comes out at 6 of a possible 10, a elevated reading. With 30-day volatility of 48.2%, a beta of 0.33 and a maximum drawdown of 36.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — sell in the near term, hold further out, at 2/10 long-term conviction.
Multiples put this in overvalued territory: 44.5 times earnings against the sector's 17.8. The average analyst target implies 26.9% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 31.2% on a 60.3% profit margin. The 0.69% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk comes out at 6 of a possible 10, a elevated reading. With 30-day volatility of 48.2%, a beta of 0.33 and a maximum drawdown of 36.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — sell in the near term, hold further out, at 2/10 long-term conviction.
Top market events
- West Texas landowner Texas Pacific Land NYSE:TPL missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q2 CY2026, but sales...
- Yahoo Finance1monTexas Pacific Land Corp TPL Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strategic .
- Yahoo Finance1monTexas Pacific Land NYSE:TPL Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 CY2026 EarningsWest Texas...
Market outlook
Short term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence5/105 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 394.43
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence4/104 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- P/E of 44.5 versus sector average of 17.8
- Trading below the 200-day average of 394.43
Long term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence2/102 out of 10
Key factors
- P/E of 44.5 versus sector average of 17.8
- Analyst targets imply +26.9% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 60.3% is healthy
Key metrics
Financial health
Revenue Growth31.20%
Profit Margin60.32%
P/E Ratio44.5
ROE36.57%
ROA25.81%
Debt/Equity1.08
P/B Ratio14.4
Op. Cash Flow$603.2M
Free Cash Flow$-32836124
Industry P/E17.8
Technical analysis
TrendBearish
RSI40.0
Support$346.51
Resistance$396.78
MA 20$368.46
MA 50$380.92
MA 200$394.43
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.66
Valuation
Fair Value$207.51
Target Price$443.00
Upside/Downside26.86%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.69%
Risk assessment
Beta0.33
Volatility48.15%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.