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TPH:NYSETri Pointe Homes, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-28 - not real-time

$46.97

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Tri Pointe Homes is trading just below its recent high with the 20‑day moving average comfortably above the 50‑day line, confirming a bullish trend, while the 200‑day average remains well below current levels, indicating long‑term upside. Momentum indicators show an RSI in the overbought zone and a MACD histogram that has turned negative, suggesting short‑term pressure near the identified resistance. Volume is accelerating, which could support a breakout or a swift pull‑back depending on market sentiment.
Fundamentally, the company reports a sharp decline in revenue growth, thin operating margins, and modest profitability, yet it carries a manageable debt load relative to its cash position and trades at valuation multiples that align closely with analyst target prices. The absence of a dividend and a “hold” consensus further temper expectations, making the stock appear fairly priced but vulnerable to cyclical housing dynamics.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • RSI in overbought territory
  • Bearish MACD crossover
  • Proximity to short‑term resistance

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Stagnant revenue growth
  • Moderate valuation relative to targets
  • Consumer‑cyclical exposure

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Integrated mortgage and insurance services provide recurring cash flow
  • Low beta indicating defensive characteristics
  • Long‑term housing demand supporting price stability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-29.60%
Profit Margin5.66%
P/E Ratio22.4
ROE5.54%
ROA3.41%
Debt/Equity37.78
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$144.7M
Free Cash Flow$134.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI67.6
Support$46.76
Resistance$46.99
MA 20$46.89
MA 50$46.71
MA 200$37.57
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.34

Valuation

Target Price$47.00
GradeFair
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.52
Volatility2.32%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.