TPH:NYSETri Pointe Homes, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-28 - not real-time
$46.97
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Tri Pointe Homes is trading just below its recent high with the 20‑day moving average comfortably above the 50‑day line, confirming a bullish trend, while the 200‑day average remains well below current levels, indicating long‑term upside. Momentum indicators show an RSI in the overbought zone and a MACD histogram that has turned negative, suggesting short‑term pressure near the identified resistance. Volume is accelerating, which could support a breakout or a swift pull‑back depending on market sentiment.
Fundamentally, the company reports a sharp decline in revenue growth, thin operating margins, and modest profitability, yet it carries a manageable debt load relative to its cash position and trades at valuation multiples that align closely with analyst target prices. The absence of a dividend and a “hold” consensus further temper expectations, making the stock appear fairly priced but vulnerable to cyclical housing dynamics.
Fundamentally, the company reports a sharp decline in revenue growth, thin operating margins, and modest profitability, yet it carries a manageable debt load relative to its cash position and trades at valuation multiples that align closely with analyst target prices. The absence of a dividend and a “hold” consensus further temper expectations, making the stock appear fairly priced but vulnerable to cyclical housing dynamics.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- RSI in overbought territory
- Bearish MACD crossover
- Proximity to short‑term resistance
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Stagnant revenue growth
- Moderate valuation relative to targets
- Consumer‑cyclical exposure
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Integrated mortgage and insurance services provide recurring cash flow
- Low beta indicating defensive characteristics
- Long‑term housing demand supporting price stability
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-29.60%
Profit Margin5.66%
P/E Ratio22.4
ROE5.54%
ROA3.41%
Debt/Equity37.78
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$144.7M
Free Cash Flow$134.4M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI67.6
Support$46.76
Resistance$46.99
MA 20$46.89
MA 50$46.71
MA 200$37.57
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.34
Valuation
Target Price$47.00
GradeFair
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.52
Volatility2.32%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.