TOTS3:BMFBOVESPATOTVS S.A. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time
R$29.80
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
TOTVS delivered a robust earnings beat, with revenue expanding at a solid pace and SaaS subscriptions accelerating, underscoring the strength of its recurring‑revenue model. Operating margins remain healthy, cash generation is strong, and the dividend payout is comfortably covered, supporting the recent "strong buy" consensus among analysts. These fundamentals provide a solid foundation for continued growth despite a challenging macro environment.
The technical picture is mixed: the stock trades below its 50‑day and 200‑day averages, with bearish momentum signals and a price hovering near a key support zone. Volatility is elevated, and the current market price sits well above the discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting limited upside from a valuation standpoint, yet analyst price targets imply a sizable upside potential. Caution is warranted given sector and geographic risks, but the dividend yield and cash flow cushion add a defensive layer.
The technical picture is mixed: the stock trades below its 50‑day and 200‑day averages, with bearish momentum signals and a price hovering near a key support zone. Volatility is elevated, and the current market price sits well above the discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting limited upside from a valuation standpoint, yet analyst price targets imply a sizable upside potential. Caution is warranted given sector and geographic risks, but the dividend yield and cash flow cushion add a defensive layer.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Recent earnings beat and strong cash flow
- Bearish technical momentum near support
- Elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustained revenue and SaaS growth
- Attractive dividend yield with solid payout coverage
- Analyst consensus and price targets indicating upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Recurring‑revenue business model driving stable cash streams
- Leadership in the Brazilian enterprise software market
- Long‑term digital transformation demand across multiple industries
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth22.40%
Profit Margin15.22%
P/E Ratio20.3
ROE16.91%
ROA6.69%
Debt/Equity91.66
P/B Ratio3.4
Op. Cash FlowR$1.3B
Free Cash FlowR$379.5M
Industry P/E36.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI39.9
SupportR$28.01
ResistanceR$35.10
MA 20R$31.78
MA 50R$32.96
MA 200R$39.90
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair ValueR$15.59
Target PriceR$50.23
Upside/Downside68.56%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.79%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.75
Volatility54.43%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.