TOL:NYSEToll Brothers, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-05 - not real-time
$137.68
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Toll Brothers is trading at $137.68, below its 20‑day ($142.7) and 50‑day ($142.6) SMAs, with a bearish MACD and a neutral RSI of 43.7, signaling short‑term weakness. Volume is declining and recent market commentary highlights rising mortgage rates that are pressuring buyer demand, though the price still sits above the calculated support level of $134.54 and the broader trend is deemed bullish.
Fundamentally, the company posted 15% revenue growth and a 12% profit margin while trading at a low PE of 9.9. A DCF fair‑value estimate of $216.7 suggests roughly 22% upside0.75% dividend yield with a modest 7% payout ratio appears sustainable. With modest leverage, a strong ROE of 17%, and a solid brand in the luxury home market, TOL looks undervalued and primed for medium‑ to long‑term appreciation.
Fundamentally, the company posted 15% revenue growth and a 12% profit margin while trading at a low PE of 9.9. A DCF fair‑value estimate of $216.7 suggests roughly 22% upside0.75% dividend yield with a modest 7% payout ratio appears sustainable. With modest leverage, a strong ROE of 17%, and a solid brand in the luxury home market, TOL looks undervalued and primed for medium‑ to long‑term appreciation.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators (MACD, price below SMAs)
- Decreasing volume and rising mortgage rates
- Price still above near‑term support
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued valuation with ~22% upside to targets
- Strong earnings growth and low PE multiple
- Sustainable dividend and modest leverage
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value indicating significant long‑term upside
- Robust ROE and consistent profit margins
- Resilient luxury‑home market positioning
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth15.40%
Profit Margin12.26%
P/E Ratio9.9
ROE17.00%
ROA8.06%
Debt/Equity33.90
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow$1.5B
Free Cash Flow$875.7M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI43.7
Support$134.54
Resistance$153.88
MA 20$142.67
MA 50$142.62
MA 200$139.29
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.59
Valuation
Fair Value$216.74
Target Price$168.38
Upside/Downside22.30%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.75%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.20
Volatility35.09%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.