TOI:NASDAQThe Oncology Institute, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-28 - not real-time
$5.39
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
The stock is trading at $5.39, comfortably above its 20‑day ($4.98), 50‑day ($4.35) and 200‑day ($3.62) simple moving averages, indicating a strong bullish price trend. RSI sits at 63, suggesting momentum remains positive but not yet overbought, while the price is supported around $4.22 and faces resistance near $5.58. The MACD histogram has turned negative and the signal line is labeled bearish, hinting at a possible short‑term pullback despite the overall bullish bias. Volatility is elevated at 66% over the past 30 days, yet beta is essentially neutral (‑0.02), so price swings appear driven by company‑specific factors rather than market moves. Analyst sentiment is very positive, with a “strong_buy” rating and a mean target of $7.75, implying upside of roughly 38‑44%.
Fundamentally, TOI generated $545 M in revenue with a robust 41% YoY growth, but margins are thin (gross 15%) and operating at a loss (operating margin ‑4.4%). Cash balances ($30 M) are far below total debt ($105 M), and a negative book value per share (‑$0.16) yields a price‑to‑book of –33. The company has no dividend and a forward PE of –33, reflecting ongoing earnings pressure. Given the low price‑to‑sales multiple (~1×) and strong top‑line growth, the equity appears undervalued relative to its growth story, though the negative earnings and high cash burn raise considerable risk.
Fundamentally, TOI generated $545 M in revenue with a robust 41% YoY growth, but margins are thin (gross 15%) and operating at a loss (operating margin ‑4.4%). Cash balances ($30 M) are far below total debt ($105 M), and a negative book value per share (‑$0.16) yields a price‑to‑book of –33. The company has no dividend and a forward PE of –33, reflecting ongoing earnings pressure. Given the low price‑to‑sales multiple (~1×) and strong top‑line growth, the equity appears undervalued relative to its growth story, though the negative earnings and high cash burn raise considerable risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price above all major SMAs indicating bullish momentum
- Analyst mean target of $7.75 suggests near‑term upside
- Support level at $4.22 provides downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- 41% revenue growth year‑over‑year
- Price‑to‑sales ratio below 1 indicating valuation discount
- Strong analyst consensus (strong_buy) with median target $8
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Ongoing operating losses and negative equity raise solvency concerns
- High regulatory exposure inherent to oncology services
- Potential for margin improvement as scale increases
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth41.20%
Profit Margin-7.97%
P/E Ratio-33.7
ROA-12.30%
P/B Ratio-33.1
Op. Cash Flow$-21814000
Free Cash Flow$-15312625
Industry P/E25.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI63.3
Support$4.22
Resistance$5.57
MA 20$4.98
MA 50$4.35
MA 200$3.62
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.55
Valuation
Target Price$7.75
Upside/Downside43.78%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.02
Volatility66.37%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.