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TNYA:NASDAQTenaya Therapeutics, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time

$0.74

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Tenaya Therapeutics (TNYA) is trading at $0.74, barely above its computed support of $0.72 and well below the 20‑day SMA of $0.816, indicating limited upside on the short side of the chart. The RSI sits at 41, suggesting the stock is not yet oversold, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, reinforcing a neutral‑to‑slightly bearish near‑term momentum. Volatility is extreme at 53.6% over the past 30 days and beta is high at 2.37, reflecting a highly responsive price to market swings and a historic max drawdown of roughly 74%.
Fundamentally, the company is cash‑rich ($80.9M) but burdened by a $10.1M debt load and negative earnings (PE -1.79, trailing EPS -$0.44). Analyst consensus is a “strong buy” with a median target of $3.00, implying a potential upside of over 300% from current levels. Recent material news includes a research collaboration with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals and the appointment of a new CFO, both of which could accelerate the development of its gene‑therapy pipeline and improve execution risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above technical support
  • Bearish MACD and decreasing volume
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Alnylam collaboration expanding pipeline credibility
  • New CFO expected to strengthen financial discipline
  • Analyst consensus strong‑buy with median $3 target

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Unique gene‑therapy candidates addressing unmet cardiac diseases
  • Substantial cash runway relative to current burn
  • Potential for multi‑fold price appreciation given upside/downside estimate of 332%

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

P/E Ratio-1.8
ROE-73.59%
ROA-38.46%
Debt/Equity9.53
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$-64386000
Free Cash Flow$-41898248
Industry P/E29.2

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI41.2
Support$0.72
Resistance$0.95
MA 20$0.82
MA 50$0.78
MA 200$0.90
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88

Valuation

Target Price$3.20
Upside/Downside332.26%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta2.37
Volatility53.57%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.