TMHC:NYSETaylor Morrison Home Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-16 - not real-time
$71.84
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading well above its short‑ and medium‑term moving averages with a bullish MACD crossover, but the momentum indicator is in overbought territory and the price sits just below a recent resistance level.
Fundamental backdrop: Earnings multiples are modest, yet a discounted cash‑flow model places the fair value below the current market price, suggesting limited upside. Revenue has contracted sharply year‑over‑year, while margins remain modest and the company carries no dividend. The most material catalyst is the announced all‑cash acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway, which introduces a potential premium to shareholders but also adds deal‑completion risk.
Fundamental backdrop: Earnings multiples are modest, yet a discounted cash‑flow model places the fair value below the current market price, suggesting limited upside. Revenue has contracted sharply year‑over‑year, while margins remain modest and the company carries no dividend. The most material catalyst is the announced all‑cash acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway, which introduces a potential premium to shareholders but also adds deal‑completion risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- price near recent resistance
- overbought RSI indicating potential pullback
- uncertainty around exact acquisition premium
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- pending Berkshire Hathaway acquisition offering cash consideration
- potential premium above current market price
- stable valuation metrics relative to peers
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- post‑acquisition integration and strategic direction unknown
- exposure to cyclical housing market
- absence of dividend income
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-26.80%
Profit Margin8.77%
P/E Ratio10.7
ROE11.11%
ROA6.62%
Debt/Equity38.65
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$729.7M
Free Cash Flow$503.8M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI75.6
Support$54.15
Resistance$72.26
MA 20$66.17
MA 50$62.35
MA 200$62.59
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.13
Valuation
Fair Value$53.08
Target Price$64.83
Upside/Downside-9.75%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.79
Volatility62.69%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.