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TM:NYSEToyota Motor Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-05 - not real-time

$190.03

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Toyota Motor Corp (TM) is trading at $190.03, comfortably above the immediate support of $188.08 but still below its 20‑day (202.34), 50‑day (211.63) and 200‑day (207.42) simple moving averages, signalling a short‑term corrective phase. The RSI of 32.4 points to oversold conditions while the MACD remains in a bearish alignment (line ‑6.59 vs signal ‑5.54), suggesting momentum may stay negative until price re‑captures the 200‑day SMA. Volume is on an increasing trend, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 90.68 – “Extreme Greed” – indicating that broader market sentiment could be inflating risk appetite for the stock.
Fundamentally, TM delivers solid revenue growth of 8.6% and a low trailing P/E of 10.5, coupled with a 3.05% dividend yield and a modest 33% payout ratio, underscoring cash‑flow strength. The discounted cash‑flow model values the company at roughly $31,243 per share, implying a 34% upside from current levels, and analysts collectively rate it a “Buy” with a median target near $255.5. These fundamentals, together with a resilient operating margin and a global footprint, support a longer‑term bullish outlook despite near‑term technical headwinds.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above key support at $188.08
  • RSI indicating oversold conditions but MACD still bearish
  • Increasing volume suggesting potential accumulation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value with ~34% upside
  • Strong earnings multiples (P/E ~10.5) and solid dividend yield
  • Analyst consensus of “Buy” and median price target near $255.5

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Robust global brand and ongoing investments in EV/battery technology
  • Sustainable dividend payout and healthy cash‑flow generation
  • Long‑term growth prospects outweigh cyclical automotive risks

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.60%
Profit Margin7.32%
P/E Ratio10.5
ROE10.03%
ROA2.73%
Debt/Equity105.34
P/B Ratio16.2
Op. Cash Flow$4642.9B
Free Cash Flow$-52135124992

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI32.4
Support$188.08
Resistance$219.85
MA 20$202.34
MA 50$211.63
MA 200$207.42
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.68

Valuation

Fair Value$31,243.15
Target Price$255.52
Upside/Downside34.47%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.05%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.07
Volatility29.05%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.