TM:NYSEToyota Motor Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-17 - not real-time
$179.76
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) is trading around $179.8, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (≈$173.4) but still below the 50‑day (≈$180) and 200‑day (≈$204) averages, indicating short‑term momentum amid a longer‑term bearish backdrop. The RSI sits at 55, suggesting neutral pressure, while the MACD histogram is positive, hinting at a modest bullish tilt despite the overall bearish trend and decreasing volume. Valuation metrics reinforce the case for upside: a trailing P/E of under 10, a forward P/E near 11, and analyst price targets averaging $236‑$239 imply roughly 30% upside from current levels. The dividend yield of 3.49% with a payout ratio around 31% appears sustainable given solid operating cash flow, even though free cash flow is currently negative.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price approaching the $181.75 resistance level
- Decreasing volume and bearish SMA alignment
- Neutral RSI with a slight MACD bullish signal
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Analyst consensus targets imply ~30% upside
- New $2 billion Texas assembly line supporting EV/hydrogen growth
- Insider buying by senior executives indicating confidence
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Low trailing P/E and attractive dividend yield
- Strategic positioning in hybrid, EV, and fuel‑cell technologies
- Global brand resilience and diversified geographic footprint
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth1.90%
Profit Margin7.59%
P/E Ratio9.8
ROE10.23%
ROA2.37%
Debt/Equity107.06
P/B Ratio15.1
Op. Cash Flow$5472.9B
Free Cash Flow$-1204836106240
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI55.0
Support$166.10
Resistance$181.75
MA 20$173.41
MA 50$180.03
MA 200$204.19
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.09
Valuation
Fair Value$20,463.92
Target Price$239.02
Upside/Downside32.97%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.49%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.06
Volatility26.41%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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STOCKThis analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.