TM:NYSEToyota Motor Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-01 - not real-time
$196.54
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Toyota Motor Corporation trades at $196.54, with its moving averages tangled rather than clearly stacked — a neutral trend structure. Over a rolling month the price has gained 10.7%. Relative strength is 63.0 — approaching overbought — and the MACD signal is bullish. Price has been bracketed by support at $185.29 and resistance at $198.50.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 8.8, absent a reliable peer benchmark. The average analyst target implies 17.8% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 10.4% on a 8.6% profit margin. The 3.22% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 5 — moderate. With 30-day volatility of 23.2%, a beta of 0.86 and a maximum drawdown of 32.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 3/10 conviction.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 8.8, absent a reliable peer benchmark. The average analyst target implies 17.8% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 10.4% on a 8.6% profit margin. The 3.22% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 5 — moderate. With 30-day volatility of 23.2%, a beta of 0.86 and a maximum drawdown of 32.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 3/10 conviction.
Top Market Events
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Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Trading below the 200-day average of 202.40
- MACD momentum is positive
- 30-day price change of +10.7%
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Trading below the 200-day average of 202.40
- Analyst targets imply +17.8% versus the current price
- MACD momentum is positive
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Analyst targets imply +17.8% versus the current price
- Revenue growth of +10.4%
- Negative free cash flow
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth10.40%
Profit Margin8.63%
P/E Ratio8.8
ROE12.40%
ROA2.34%
Debt/Equity114.97
P/B Ratio16.0
Op. Cash Flow$4133.0B
Free Cash Flow$-3599962472448
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI63.0
Support$185.29
Resistance$198.50
MA 20$190.42
MA 50$182.32
MA 200$202.40
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.79
Valuation
Fair Value$22,304.87
Target Price$231.58
Upside/Downside17.83%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.22%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.86
Volatility23.16%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.