TLT:NASDAQiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-15 - not real-time
$80.63
Latest Price
2/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF trades at $80.62, with its short-term moving averages sitting below the longer-term ones — a bearish trend structure. Over a rolling month the price has lost 1.9%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 33.7 (approaching oversold) with MACD reading bearish. Price has been bracketed by support at $80.46 and resistance at $83.60.
The 0.15% expense ratio is competitive for its category, and the fund manages $47.05B in assets.
The composite risk read is 2/10, putting it in low territory. With 30-day volatility of 9.9%, a beta of 0.17 and a maximum drawdown of 12.4%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is sell while the long-term read is hold, conviction 2 out of 10.
The 0.15% expense ratio is competitive for its category, and the fund manages $47.05B in assets.
The composite risk read is 2/10, putting it in low territory. With 30-day volatility of 9.9%, a beta of 0.17 and a maximum drawdown of 12.4%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is sell while the long-term read is hold, conviction 2 out of 10.
Top Market Events
Seeking Alpha21dTLT: AI Productivity Gains Threaten Long-End TreasuriesI downgrade iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF...Seeking Alpha26diShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF: Lower Duration Multiple Limits Downside RiskThe iShares 20+ Year...4don MSNLong-term Treasury ETF TLT falls to lowest level since 2004The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT fell to...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 86.00
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 86.00
- MACD momentum is negative
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Low expense ratio of 0.15%
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- 30-day volatility of 9.9%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.15%
AUM$47.0B
Inception Date2002-07-22
Avg Daily Volume30,241,860
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.73%
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI33.7
Support$80.46
Resistance$83.60
MA 20$82.11
MA 50$82.80
MA 200$86.00
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.29
Risk Assessment
Beta0.17
Volatility9.93%
Sector RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.