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TDSC:NASDAQETC Cabana Target Drawdown 10 ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-01 - not real-time

$27.61

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The ETF has delivered a solid YTD gain of 10.3% while posting a three‑year annualized return of 9.2%. Its expense ratio of 0.9% is modest for a tactical allocation fund, and a beta of 0.60 signals lower sensitivity to market swings. Technical signals are mixed: the 14‑day RSI sits at 48.8 (near neutral), the MACD line is bearish, and price is trading just above the 20‑day SMA. Volume has been on a downtrend, with today’s 3,276 shares well below the 10‑day average of 4,380, suggesting waning short‑term interest. Support at 27.34 and resistance at 28.12 frame a narrow range, and the 30‑day volatility of 7.8% is modest. The market’s Extreme Greed sentiment (FGI 92.9) could pressure valuations upward.
Risk‑adjusted metrics are favorable: a max drawdown of only ‑5.5% and zero tracking error indicate disciplined management. Liquidity is a concern, however, given the low trading volume, placing the fund in a medium liquidity‑risk bucket. Sector concentration appears limited, aligning with a low to medium concentration risk assessment. Overall, the ETF presents a balanced risk‑return profile that may suit investors seeking modest upside with limited volatility.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram indicating short‑term downside pressure
  • Decreasing volume suggesting reduced buying interest
  • Price hovering just above immediate support at 27.34

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong YTD performance of over 10% with low beta
  • Zero tracking error and disciplined expense ratio
  • Moderate volatility (7.8% 30‑day) offering upside potential

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Modest 5‑year return (~2.4%) indicating limited long‑term growth
  • Low expense ratio and stable tracking
  • Limited sector concentration reducing systemic risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.90%
AUM$100.3M
Inception Date2020-09-16
Avg Daily Volume4,380
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield1.61%

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.8
Support$27.34
Resistance$28.12
MA 20$27.68
MA 50$27.71
MA 200$26.45
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88

Risk Assessment

Beta0.60
Volatility7.81%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.