TDSC:NASDAQETC Cabana Target Drawdown 10 ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-01 - not real-time
$27.61
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The ETF has delivered a solid YTD gain of 10.3% while posting a three‑year annualized return of 9.2%. Its expense ratio of 0.9% is modest for a tactical allocation fund, and a beta of 0.60 signals lower sensitivity to market swings. Technical signals are mixed: the 14‑day RSI sits at 48.8 (near neutral), the MACD line is bearish, and price is trading just above the 20‑day SMA. Volume has been on a downtrend, with today’s 3,276 shares well below the 10‑day average of 4,380, suggesting waning short‑term interest. Support at 27.34 and resistance at 28.12 frame a narrow range, and the 30‑day volatility of 7.8% is modest. The market’s Extreme Greed sentiment (FGI 92.9) could pressure valuations upward.
Risk‑adjusted metrics are favorable: a max drawdown of only ‑5.5% and zero tracking error indicate disciplined management. Liquidity is a concern, however, given the low trading volume, placing the fund in a medium liquidity‑risk bucket. Sector concentration appears limited, aligning with a low to medium concentration risk assessment. Overall, the ETF presents a balanced risk‑return profile that may suit investors seeking modest upside with limited volatility.
Risk‑adjusted metrics are favorable: a max drawdown of only ‑5.5% and zero tracking error indicate disciplined management. Liquidity is a concern, however, given the low trading volume, placing the fund in a medium liquidity‑risk bucket. Sector concentration appears limited, aligning with a low to medium concentration risk assessment. Overall, the ETF presents a balanced risk‑return profile that may suit investors seeking modest upside with limited volatility.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram indicating short‑term downside pressure
- Decreasing volume suggesting reduced buying interest
- Price hovering just above immediate support at 27.34
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong YTD performance of over 10% with low beta
- Zero tracking error and disciplined expense ratio
- Moderate volatility (7.8% 30‑day) offering upside potential
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Modest 5‑year return (~2.4%) indicating limited long‑term growth
- Low expense ratio and stable tracking
- Limited sector concentration reducing systemic risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.90%
AUM$100.3M
Inception Date2020-09-16
Avg Daily Volume4,380
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield1.61%
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI48.8
Support$27.34
Resistance$28.12
MA 20$27.68
MA 50$27.71
MA 200$26.45
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Risk Assessment
Beta0.60
Volatility7.81%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.