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TDS:NYSETelephone and Data Systems, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time

$39.59

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock is trading virtually at its 20‑day simple moving average, while sitting below the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish price positioning. Momentum indicators show a mid‑range RSI and a bullish MACD histogram, suggesting limited upside momentum. Current price hovers just above a well‑defined support level and below a nearby resistance, framing a tight trading range.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenue is growing modestly and profit margins remain positive, yet operating margin is marginally negative, reflecting cost pressures. The balance sheet is cash‑rich but carries a high debt load, resulting in a debt‑to‑equity ratio that is elevated for the sector. Valuation metrics are mixed: the trailing P/E exceeds the industry average, while the discounted cash flow model points to a substantial fair‑value upside, and the dividend payout is modest with a low yield, implying sustainability.Risk and outlook: Volatility over the past month is elevated, but beta is low, tempering market‑wide risk. Declining volume hints at reduced liquidity, and regulatory exposure typical of telecom services adds a medium‑level risk. Overall, the combination of a modest upside potential, stable dividend, and balanced risk profile supports a cautiously optimistic stance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near immediate support
  • Neutral trend with slight bullish MACD signal
  • Decreasing volume suggests caution

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF‑derived upside potential
  • Steady dividend with low payout ratio
  • Moderate revenue growth and positive net margin

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High cash reserves offsetting debt load
  • Low beta and stable sector fundamentals
  • Sustainable dividend but limited growth acceleration

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.50%
Profit Margin10.49%
P/E Ratio23.3
ROE6.01%
ROA-0.18%
Debt/Equity23.84
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$471.7M
Free Cash Flow$623.7M
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI41.9
Support$38.24
Resistance$41.46
MA 20$39.58
MA 50$42.45
MA 200$41.47
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.14

Valuation

Fair Value$96.15
Target Price$50.50
Upside/Downside27.56%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.40%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.67
Volatility31.66%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.