TDS:NYSETelephone and Data Systems, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-04 - not real-time
$44.54
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The stock is trading above its 20‑day moving average while the 20‑day SMA sits above the 50‑day SMA, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. However, the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD line sits below its signal line, suggesting emerging bearish pressure, and the RSI hovers around the midpoint, implying no clear overbought or oversold condition.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a price far below its discounted cash‑flow fair value, delivering an implied upside, yet its trailing P/E is dramatically higher than the industry average, and margins remain thin. Cash flow is positive and the dividend payout ratio is modest, supporting dividend sustainability, while leverage has been reduced through asset monetization. The blend of technical bullishness, valuation upside, and solid cash generation makes the stock a nuanced opportunity.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a price far below its discounted cash‑flow fair value, delivering an implied upside, yet its trailing P/E is dramatically higher than the industry average, and margins remain thin. Cash flow is positive and the dividend payout ratio is modest, supporting dividend sustainability, while leverage has been reduced through asset monetization. The blend of technical bullishness, valuation upside, and solid cash generation makes the stock a nuanced opportunity.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price is just above the identified support level
- Bullish SMA crossover but MACD turning bearish
- Stable volume and moderate beta limiting downside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF‑based upside relative to current price
- Revenue growth outpacing the broader telecom sector
- Sustainable dividend with comfortable payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Continued de‑leveraging improving balance‑sheet resilience
- Long‑term demand for fiber and broadband services
- Stable cash flow generation supporting dividend and reinvestment
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth12.00%
Profit Margin-0.51%
P/E Ratio114.2
ROE2.71%
ROA-0.35%
Debt/Equity26.66
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow$589.9M
Free Cash Flow$427.1M
Industry P/E18.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI49.0
Support$43.73
Resistance$46.80
MA 20$45.12
MA 50$44.25
MA 200$41.12
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index87.98
Valuation
Fair Value$77.20
Target Price$52.33
Upside/Downside17.50%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.35%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.70
Volatility28.46%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.