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TDS:NYSETelephone and Data Systems, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-26 - not real-time

$38.75

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical indicators show that the 20‑day simple moving average is positioned above the 50‑day average, while the relative strength index sits in oversold territory and the MACD histogram remains negative, suggesting short‑term price pressure but potential for a rebound near the identified support level. The stock is trading well below its discounted cash‑flow derived fair value, implying a material upside potential, and the recent all‑stock merger proposal with Array Digital Infrastructure adds a strategic catalyst that could unlock further value.
Fundamentals and risk reveal solid cash reserves, a low dividend payout ratio, and a modest beta indicating limited market volatility exposure, though the 30‑day price volatility is elevated and operating margins are currently thin. The dividend appears sustainable, and the company’s focus on fiber expansion and broader telecom services supports a longer‑term growth narrative despite a neutral overall risk profile.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI and price near support
  • Merger announcement providing catalyst
  • Significant upside relative to fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic synergies from Array acquisition
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
  • Robust cash position supporting growth initiatives

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term fiber expansion strategy
  • Stable cash generation and dividend track record
  • Undervaluation relative to intrinsic value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.50%
Profit Margin10.49%
P/E Ratio22.8
ROE6.01%
ROA-0.18%
Debt/Equity23.84
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$471.7M
Free Cash Flow$623.7M
Industry P/E17.0

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI28.9
Support$38.24
Resistance$49.12
MA 20$43.11
MA 50$43.67
MA 200$41.43
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.89

Valuation

Fair Value$95.05
Target Price$50.50
Upside/Downside30.34%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.41%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.78
Volatility32.32%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.