TDS:NYSETelephone and Data Systems, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time
$39.59
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading virtually at its 20‑day simple moving average, while sitting below the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish price positioning. Momentum indicators show a mid‑range RSI and a bullish MACD histogram, suggesting limited upside momentum. Current price hovers just above a well‑defined support level and below a nearby resistance, framing a tight trading range.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenue is growing modestly and profit margins remain positive, yet operating margin is marginally negative, reflecting cost pressures. The balance sheet is cash‑rich but carries a high debt load, resulting in a debt‑to‑equity ratio that is elevated for the sector. Valuation metrics are mixed: the trailing P/E exceeds the industry average, while the discounted cash flow model points to a substantial fair‑value upside, and the dividend payout is modest with a low yield, implying sustainability.Risk and outlook: Volatility over the past month is elevated, but beta is low, tempering market‑wide risk. Declining volume hints at reduced liquidity, and regulatory exposure typical of telecom services adds a medium‑level risk. Overall, the combination of a modest upside potential, stable dividend, and balanced risk profile supports a cautiously optimistic stance.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenue is growing modestly and profit margins remain positive, yet operating margin is marginally negative, reflecting cost pressures. The balance sheet is cash‑rich but carries a high debt load, resulting in a debt‑to‑equity ratio that is elevated for the sector. Valuation metrics are mixed: the trailing P/E exceeds the industry average, while the discounted cash flow model points to a substantial fair‑value upside, and the dividend payout is modest with a low yield, implying sustainability.Risk and outlook: Volatility over the past month is elevated, but beta is low, tempering market‑wide risk. Declining volume hints at reduced liquidity, and regulatory exposure typical of telecom services adds a medium‑level risk. Overall, the combination of a modest upside potential, stable dividend, and balanced risk profile supports a cautiously optimistic stance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near immediate support
- Neutral trend with slight bullish MACD signal
- Decreasing volume suggests caution
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF‑derived upside potential
- Steady dividend with low payout ratio
- Moderate revenue growth and positive net margin
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- High cash reserves offsetting debt load
- Low beta and stable sector fundamentals
- Sustainable dividend but limited growth acceleration
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.50%
Profit Margin10.49%
P/E Ratio23.3
ROE6.01%
ROA-0.18%
Debt/Equity23.84
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$471.7M
Free Cash Flow$623.7M
Industry P/E16.7
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI41.9
Support$38.24
Resistance$41.46
MA 20$39.58
MA 50$42.45
MA 200$41.47
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.14
Valuation
Fair Value$96.15
Target Price$50.50
Upside/Downside27.56%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.40%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.67
Volatility31.66%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.