TD:TSXToronto-Dominion Bank Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time
CA$129.47
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
TD.TO is trading well below its consensus target range and exhibits a classic bullish price structure, with the short‑term average price staying above the longer‑term average. The relative strength index sits near the midpoint, suggesting limited upside momentum for the next few days, while the MACD histogram is negative, hinting at short‑term bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the stock benefits from a robust dividend yield that comfortably exceeds the market average and a payout ratio that leaves ample room for continued distributions. Recent news highlights a sizable share‑buyback programme and accelerated AI‑driven efficiency initiatives, reinforcing confidence in earnings growth despite broader trade‑related headwinds.
Overall, the combination of an attractive valuation gap, solid cash generation, and a stable dividend profile supports a positive outlook, though investors should watch for near‑term technical weakness around the identified support zone.
Overall, the combination of an attractive valuation gap, solid cash generation, and a stable dividend profile supports a positive outlook, though investors should watch for near‑term technical weakness around the identified support zone.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Negative MACD histogram indicating short‑term bearish pressure
- Price approaching a well‑defined support level
- Strong dividend yield providing downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to peers and consensus target range
- Record earnings growth and expanding operating margins
- Multi‑billion dollar buyback programme enhancing shareholder returns
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend supported by low payout ratio and ample cash
- Low beta indicating defensive characteristics in volatile markets
- Strategic AI investments expected to boost efficiency and profitability over time
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth21.10%
Profit Margin33.02%
P/E Ratio11.2
ROE17.82%
ROA1.04%
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash FlowCA$23.4B
Industry P/E17.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI44.2
SupportCA$126.88
ResistanceCA$136.49
MA 20CA$132.14
MA 50CA$130.84
MA 200CA$113.24
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index100
Valuation
Fair ValueCA$395.52
Target PriceCA$141.20
Upside/Downside9.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.32%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.39
Volatility18.75%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.