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TD:TSXToronto-Dominion Bank Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

CA$129.47

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

TD.TO is trading well below its consensus target range and exhibits a classic bullish price structure, with the short‑term average price staying above the longer‑term average. The relative strength index sits near the midpoint, suggesting limited upside momentum for the next few days, while the MACD histogram is negative, hinting at short‑term bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the stock benefits from a robust dividend yield that comfortably exceeds the market average and a payout ratio that leaves ample room for continued distributions. Recent news highlights a sizable share‑buyback programme and accelerated AI‑driven efficiency initiatives, reinforcing confidence in earnings growth despite broader trade‑related headwinds.
Overall, the combination of an attractive valuation gap, solid cash generation, and a stable dividend profile supports a positive outlook, though investors should watch for near‑term technical weakness around the identified support zone.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Negative MACD histogram indicating short‑term bearish pressure
  • Price approaching a well‑defined support level
  • Strong dividend yield providing downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to peers and consensus target range
  • Record earnings growth and expanding operating margins
  • Multi‑billion dollar buyback programme enhancing shareholder returns

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend supported by low payout ratio and ample cash
  • Low beta indicating defensive characteristics in volatile markets
  • Strategic AI investments expected to boost efficiency and profitability over time

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth21.10%
Profit Margin33.02%
P/E Ratio11.2
ROE17.82%
ROA1.04%
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash FlowCA$23.4B
Industry P/E17.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI44.2
SupportCA$126.88
ResistanceCA$136.49
MA 20CA$132.14
MA 50CA$130.84
MA 200CA$113.24
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index100

Valuation

Fair ValueCA$395.52
Target PriceCA$141.20
Upside/Downside9.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.32%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.39
Volatility18.75%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.