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TD:NYSEToronto Dominion Bank (The) Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-04 - not real-time

$106.93

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

The Toronto‑Dominion Bank is trading at $106.93, comfortably above its 20‑day ($103.96), 50‑day ($98.65) and 200‑day ($87.43) simple moving averages, confirming a strong bullish trend. Momentum indicators reinforce this view – the MACD line sits just above its signal (bullish) and the RSI at 67.9, while elevated, remains below the classic 70‑overbought threshold. Volume, however, has been tapering, and the stock is flirting with its near‑term resistance around $108.35, suggesting a short‑term pause may be prudent.
Fundamentally, TD shines with a 21% revenue growth rate, a robust operating margin of 35.9%, and a healthy ROE of 17.8%. Its valuation appears attractive on a value basis (PE 11.9 versus an industry average of 17.4) and it offers a solid dividend yield of 2.94% with a modest 34% payout ratio, supporting dividend sustainability. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with a median price target of $102.83, slightly below the current market price, while the fear‑greed index signals “Extreme Greed,” hinting at heightened market enthusiasm.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price approaching resistance near $108.35
  • RSI nearing overbought levels
  • Decreasing volume trend

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong earnings momentum and 21% revenue growth
  • Attractive dividend yield and sustainable payout
  • Low beta (0.65) indicating defensive characteristics

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent profitability with high ROE
  • Robust balance sheet (cash > $650B vs debt $528B)
  • Diversified North‑American footprint reducing concentration risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth21.10%
Profit Margin33.02%
P/E Ratio11.9
ROE17.82%
ROA1.04%
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$23.4B
Industry P/E17.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI67.9
Support$95.43
Resistance$108.35
MA 20$103.96
MA 50$98.65
MA 200$87.43
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.36

Valuation

Fair Value$383.53
Target Price$99.15
Upside/Downside-7.28%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.94%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.65
Volatility17.61%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.