TD:NYSEToronto Dominion Bank (The) Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time
$119.92
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The stock is trading above its short‑term moving averages, indicating a bullish price momentum, while the RSI hovers around the neutral midpoint and the MACD has turned bearish, suggesting short‑term downside pressure. Volume is slipping and the price sits near a key resistance level, which aligns with the technical view of a potential pullback.
Fundamentally, the bank trades at a premium to its DCF estimate and to peers on a price‑to‑earnings basis, but it offers a solid dividend yield with a comfortable payout ratio and a strong capital position (cash exceeds debt). The low beta and moderate 30‑day volatility point to limited market risk, while recent news of a new subordinated debenture issuance and analyst price‑target upgrades provide a mixed backdrop of capital‑raising discipline and upside sentiment.
Fundamentally, the bank trades at a premium to its DCF estimate and to peers on a price‑to‑earnings basis, but it offers a solid dividend yield with a comfortable payout ratio and a strong capital position (cash exceeds debt). The low beta and moderate 30‑day volatility point to limited market risk, while recent news of a new subordinated debenture issuance and analyst price‑target upgrades provide a mixed backdrop of capital‑raising discipline and upside sentiment.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near resistance with bearish MACD histogram
- Decreasing volume indicating waning buying pressure
- Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong cash position and low leverage
- Sustainable dividend yield and moderate payout ratio
- Analyst price‑target upgrades supporting upside potential
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Diversified banking franchise across Canada and the U.S.
- Consistent profitability metrics (ROE, profit margin)
- Low beta and stable earnings underpinning long‑term resilience
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-31.50%
Profit Margin25.19%
P/E Ratio19.8
ROE11.91%
ROA0.72%
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash Flow$5.5B
Industry P/E18.0
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI51.1
Support$116.84
Resistance$124.87
MA 20$120.74
MA 50$117.88
MA 200$99.63
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Valuation
Fair Value$99.10
Target Price$113.26
Upside/Downside-5.55%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.63%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.74
Volatility20.92%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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STOCKThis analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.