TCPC:NASDAQBlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-15 - not real-time
$3.79
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Technical indicators show a bearish bias: the short‑term moving average sits below the longer‑term average, the trend is classified as bearish and volume is on a downtrend, while RSI hovers around the midpoint and MACD is near the zero line with a marginal bullish signal.
Fundamentally the company trades well above its discounted cash‑flow estimate, carries a massive debt load relative to equity, and reports negative earnings and profit margins. The dividend yield appears attractive but the payout ratio exceeds 300%, raising sustainability concerns, and a federal investigation into valuation practices adds a significant regulatory headwind.
Fundamentally the company trades well above its discounted cash‑flow estimate, carries a massive debt load relative to equity, and reports negative earnings and profit margins. The dividend yield appears attractive but the payout ratio exceeds 300%, raising sustainability concerns, and a federal investigation into valuation practices adds a significant regulatory headwind.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical setup with decreasing volume
- Regulatory investigation creating uncertainty
- Unsustainable dividend payout
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Potential for resolution of regulatory issues
- High dividend yield if payout can be adjusted
- Valuation pressure may ease if market re‑prices risk
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Persistent debt overhang and negative earnings
- Continued overvaluation relative to cash‑flow fundamentals
- Long‑term regulatory and reputational risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-23.80%
Profit Margin-66.92%
P/E Ratio5.4
ROE-18.73%
ROA5.91%
Debt/Equity163.83
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash Flow$261.5M
Free Cash Flow$68.8M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI45.3
Support$3.61
Resistance$4.24
MA 20$3.81
MA 50$4.01
MA 200$5.09
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair Value$0.93
Target Price$4.17
Upside/Downside9.94%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield22.16%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.74
Volatility36.39%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.