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TCPC:NASDAQBlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-04 - not real-time

$4.39

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

TCPC trades at $4.39, comfortably above its 20‑day ($4.14) and 50‑day ($3.95) simple moving averages, suggesting short‑term momentum, while remaining well below the 200‑day SMA of $5.56, indicating a longer‑term downtrend. Technical signals are mixed: the MACD histogram is positive (0.027) and the MACD line sits above the signal line, a bullish cue, but the RSI at 62.8 hints at a market that may be edging toward overbought territory. Fundamentally, the company offers an eye‑catching dividend yield of ~21% but the payout ratio exceeds 370%, flagging unsustainability; earnings are negative (trailing EPS –1.05) and profit margins are deep in the red (‑44%). The balance sheet is heavily leveraged with a debt‑to‑equity of 173, and the max drawdown has been –56%, underscoring historical volatility. Recent news is dominated by multiple class‑action lawsuits urging investors to seek redress, adding a material regulatory and legal headwind. Volume has been slipping, and the 30‑day volatility sits at a lofty 42%, further amplifying short‑term risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and price above short‑term SMAs
  • Elevated dividend yield but unsustainable payout
  • Pending securities class‑action litigation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Strong balance‑sheet leverage (Debt/Equity >170)
  • Negative earnings and profit margins
  • Valuation near fair value with low P/B (0.62)

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • High debt load and historic drawdown risk
  • Legal and regulatory exposure from multiple lawsuits
  • Unsustainable dividend policy eroding capital

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-28.30%
Profit Margin-44.07%
P/E Ratio6.7
ROE-12.86%
ROA6.15%
Debt/Equity173.16
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash Flow$154.9M
Free Cash Flow$52.7M
Industry P/E17.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI62.8
Support$3.66
Resistance$4.49
MA 20$4.14
MA 50$3.95
MA 200$5.56
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.16

Valuation

Target Price$4.33
Upside/Downside-1.18%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield20.96%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.78
Volatility42.09%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.