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TCOM:CRYPTOCAPMarket Cap TCOM, $ Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time

$51.72

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Trip.com Group (TCOM) is trading at $51.72, well below its 20‑day SMA of $53.25 and the 200‑day SMA of $65.95, indicating a bearish price trend. The RSI of 35.8 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD line sits above its signal, offering a subtle bullish signal. Volatility remains high at 36% over the past 30 days, and beta around 0.80 points to moderate market sensitivity. Fundamentally, the company posted 21% YoY revenue growth in Q4 2025, maintains a robust gross margin of 80.6%, and trades at a low forward PE of 11.2 versus a trailing PE of 7.45, implying significant upside—analyst targets average $76, a ~47% upside from current levels. The dividend yield of 0.58% with a payout ratio under 5% appears sustainable. Recent earnings calls highlight strong top‑line momentum, yet emerging class‑action investigations introduce legal uncertainty.
Considering the undervalued valuation, solid cash position, and growth trajectory, the stock presents an attractive entry point for investors comfortable with sector cyclicality and moderate regulatory/geographic risks. A balanced approach that leverages the technical oversold signal while monitoring legal developments is advisable.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • RSI indicating oversold conditions
  • Support level at $49.48 providing downside cushion
  • Bullish MACD histogram suggesting short‑term momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • 21% YoY revenue growth and strong margins
  • Low PE and P/B ratios relative to industry peers
  • Analyst price targets implying ~47% upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
  • Long‑term travel demand recovery in China and abroad
  • Potential regulatory and legal headwinds

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth20.80%
Profit Margin53.35%
P/E Ratio7.5
ROE21.13%
ROA3.87%
Debt/Equity18.16
P/B Ratio1.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI35.8
Support$49.48
Resistance$56.64
MA 20$53.25
MA 50$60.33
MA 200$65.95
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Target Price$76.04
Upside/Downside47.02%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.58%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.80
Volatility36.24%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.