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TBLU:NYSETortoise Global Water ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time

$51.31

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

TBLU is trading at $51.31, marginally below its 20‑day SMA of $51.28 and 50‑day SMA of $50.78, indicating a slight price advantage over short‑term averages. The 200‑day SMA of $52.24 provides a longer‑term resistance that the fund has yet to breach. Technical momentum is mixed: the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, while the RSI of 51.3 suggests the fund is neither overbought nor oversold. Support is identified near $50.48, giving the ETF a modest cushion before downside pressure intensifies. Volatility over the past 30 days is 14.5%, which is moderate for a sector‑focused fund. The dividend yield of 3.44% offers an attractive income component in a low‑interest‑rate environment.
Fund fundamentals show a low beta of 0.69, implying reduced sensitivity to broader market swings and a defensive profile. Expense ratio is 0.40%, reasonable for a niche water infrastructure ETF, and tracking error is effectively zero, minimizing tracking risk. Liquidity is constrained, with an average daily volume of roughly 1,180 shares and today’s volume of only 367 shares, flagging a high liquidity risk. Concentration in the water sector creates a high sector‑specific risk, though the long‑term secular demand for water infrastructure supports a positive outlook. The Fear & Greed Index at 92.9 (Extreme Greed) suggests bullish market sentiment, which may lift water‑related equities. Overall, the fund balances modest income and defensive beta against concentration and liquidity challenges.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Neutral technical indicators with bearish MACD and RSI near 50
  • Attractive 3.44% dividend yield providing income
  • High liquidity risk due to low trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Secular growth in global water infrastructure demand
  • Low beta (0.69) offering defensive characteristics
  • Reasonable expense ratio and zero tracking error

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term water scarcity driving sustained sector expansion
  • Consistent dividend yield supporting total return
  • Defensive low‑beta profile offsetting sector concentration risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.40%
AUM$55.4M
Inception Date2017-02-14
Avg Daily Volume1,180
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield3.44%

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI51.3
Support$50.48
Resistance$52.20
MA 20$51.28
MA 50$50.78
MA 200$52.24
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.88

Risk Assessment

Beta0.69
Volatility14.46%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.