TBIL:NASDAQF/m US Treasury 3 Month Bill Fund Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time
$49.95
Latest Price
2/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
TBIL is trading in a narrow band with the short‑term and medium‑term moving averages essentially overlapped, indicating a flat price trajectory. The relative strength index sits in the upper half of its range, hinting at modest bullish momentum despite a broader bearish trend label. The MACD line sits above its signal line, delivering a bullish signal that reinforces the upside bias. Volatility over the past month has been exceptionally low, underscoring the fund’s stability. With a beta that is virtually zero, the ETF moves independently of equity market swings, making it a defensive shelter. Its expense ratio is remarkably low, preserving more of the modest single‑digit dividend yield for investors.
Liquidity remains robust, as evidenced by stable trading volume that comfortably exceeds recent averages. Tracking error is effectively nil, ensuring the fund mirrors its Treasury bill benchmark with precision. Historical drawdowns have been minimal, reflecting the safety of short‑term government debt. The current market sentiment is characterized by extreme greed, yet the fund’s government‑backed focus insulates it from heightened risk appetite swings. Overall, TBIL offers a low‑risk, yield‑oriented profile suitable for capital preservation and modest income. Investors should view it as a safe‑haven component within a diversified portfolio.
Liquidity remains robust, as evidenced by stable trading volume that comfortably exceeds recent averages. Tracking error is effectively nil, ensuring the fund mirrors its Treasury bill benchmark with precision. Historical drawdowns have been minimal, reflecting the safety of short‑term government debt. The current market sentiment is characterized by extreme greed, yet the fund’s government‑backed focus insulates it from heightened risk appetite swings. Overall, TBIL offers a low‑risk, yield‑oriented profile suitable for capital preservation and modest income. Investors should view it as a safe‑haven component within a diversified portfolio.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- flat price action with overlapping moving averages
- bullish MACD signal amid low volatility
- stable trading volume supporting liquidity
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- near‑zero beta offering protection from equity market swings
- consistent low‑cost structure preserving yield
- minimal tracking error ensuring precise benchmark replication
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- government‑backed Treasury bills providing credit quality
- historically negligible drawdowns reinforcing capital preservation
- steady dividend yield in the low single‑digit range
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.15%
AUM$7.1B
Inception Date2022-08-08
Avg Daily Volume1,890,410
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.17%
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI59.4
Support$49.84
Resistance$49.99
MA 20$49.92
MA 50$49.92
MA 200$49.93
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.21
Risk Assessment
Beta0.01
Volatility0.89%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.