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TBIL:NASDAQF/m US Treasury 3 Month Bill Fund Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-04 - not real-time

$49.87

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

TBIL sits at $49.87, essentially hugging its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs (all ~49.92) and just above the identified support level of $49.84, suggesting limited upside but a solid floor. The RSI of 40 and a bearish MACD histogram indicate modest short‑term downside pressure, while the neutral trend and ultra‑low 30‑day volatility (1.23%) and beta (≈0.01) underscore its role as a low‑risk cash‑equivalent. The fund’s expense ratio is modest at 0.15% and it delivers an attractive 4.28% dividend yield, contributing to an impressive YTD return of 85.5% despite a flat 1‑year performance. Volume is decreasing but remains healthy (~1.0 M daily vs. 2.4 M three‑month average), and the market’s “Extreme Greed” sentiment (FGI 88.95) may push investors toward higher‑yielding safe assets like TBIL.
Overall, TBIL offers a stable, low‑volatility profile with strong income, making it suitable for investors seeking capital preservation and yield, while price proximity to support suggests limited short‑term upside unless broader rate dynamics shift.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with limited downside
  • High dividend yield (4.28%) enhancing cash flow
  • Ultra‑low volatility and beta indicating safety

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable income generation in a low‑rate environment
  • Minimal tracking error and expense ratio
  • Continued demand for ultra‑short Treasury exposure

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent capital preservation profile
  • Predictable yield as a cash‑like allocation
  • Negligible sector and currency risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.15%
AUM$7.0B
Inception Date2022-08-08
Avg Daily Volume1,883,650
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.28%

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI40.5
Support$49.84
Resistance$49.99
MA 20$49.92
MA 50$49.92
MA 200$49.93
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.95

Risk Assessment

Beta0.01
Volatility1.23%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.