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STLD:NASDAQSteel Dynamics, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-26 - not real-time

$249.18

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is trading at $249.18, just below its computed resistance level of $249.82 and well above the 20‑day SMA of $232.88, indicating strong upward price momentum. The 30‑day volatility of 33.57% and a beta of 1.37 signal heightened market sensitivity, while the 20‑day RSI of 70.48 places the stock in the overbought zone, and a bearish MACD histogram (‑0.56) suggests potential short‑term price weakness despite the bullish trend direction. Fundamental metrics show a forward PE of 14.65 versus a trailing PE of 26.68, a modest dividend yield of 0.88% with a low payout ratio of 21.8%, and solid operating cash flow of $1.45 B, supporting dividend sustainability. However, the company’s max drawdown of –20.33% and a 30‑day volatility profile reflect cyclical sector risk in Basic Materials, compounded by a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 45.99. The combination of bullish technicals, overvalued price relative to forward earnings, and resilient cash generation underpins a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Overall, STLD exhibits a blend of growth characteristics (19.1% revenue growth, expanding margins) and value concerns (elevated PE multiples), leading to an overvalued valuation grade, a blended growth/value profile, and a sustainable dividend outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Current price near resistance and overbought RSI
  • Bearish MACD histogram indicating short‑term downside pressure
  • High beta and volatility suggesting elevated market risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong operating cash flow and sustainable dividend payout
  • Revenue growth of 19.1% with expanding margins
  • Analyst consensus recommendation of "buy" and forward PE of 14.65

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental resilience via solid balance sheet and cash generation
  • Strategic position in cyclical steel and recycling markets with growth potential
  • Long‑term upside indicated by target median price of $240.50 versus current level

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth19.10%
Profit Margin7.22%
P/E Ratio26.7
ROE15.25%
ROA6.66%
Debt/Equity45.99
P/B Ratio4.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.4B
Free Cash Flow$-31788876

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI70.5
Support$219.03
Resistance$249.82
MA 20$232.88
MA 50$206.23
MA 200$172.10
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.32

Valuation

Fair Value$174.42
Target Price$241.42
Upside/Downside-3.11%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.88%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.37
Volatility33.57%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.