SPOT:NYSESpotify Technology S.A. Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-06 - not real-time
$542.43
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind Spotify Technology S.A. is neutral at $542.43, with no clear ordering between short and long averages. Over a rolling month the price has gained 12.4%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 56.2 (neutral) with MACD reading bullish. Recent trading has carved out support near $483.28 and resistance around $576.00.
The shares look overvalued, trading on 29.4 times earnings above a sector average of 15.5. Consensus targets land 13.2% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 13.9% on a 18.4% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 6 — elevated. With 30-day volatility of 42.8%, a beta of 0.36 and a maximum drawdown of 44.1%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 2/10.
The shares look overvalued, trading on 29.4 times earnings above a sector average of 15.5. Consensus targets land 13.2% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 13.9% on a 18.4% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 6 — elevated. With 30-day volatility of 42.8%, a beta of 0.36 and a maximum drawdown of 44.1%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 2/10.
Top Market Events
Janus Henderson Investors, an investment management company, released its second-quarter 2026 investor letter for the...Sands Capital, an investment management company, released its “Sands Capital Select Growth Fund” Q2 2026 investor...Seeking Alpha1monSpotify Technology S.A. SPOT Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptI would now like to turn the conference...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Trading above the 200-day average of 507.25
- MACD momentum is positive
- 30-day price change of +12.4%
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 29.4 versus sector average of 15.5
- Trading above the 200-day average of 507.25
- Analyst targets imply +13.2% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 29.4 versus sector average of 15.5
- Analyst targets imply +13.2% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 18.4% is healthy
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth13.90%
Profit Margin18.43%
P/E Ratio29.4
ROE44.48%
ROA12.19%
Debt/Equity5.56
P/B Ratio11.4
Op. Cash Flow$3.3B
Free Cash Flow$1.5B
Industry P/E15.5
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI56.2
Support$483.28
Resistance$576.00
MA 20$529.37
MA 50$502.59
MA 200$507.25
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Valuation
Fair Value$200.79
Target Price$613.88
Upside/Downside13.17%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta0.36
Volatility42.79%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.