SPOT:NYSESpotify Technology S.A. analysis
Data as of Oct 15, 2026 - not real-time
- Latest price
- $523.96
- Risk: medium
- 5/10Medium risk
Summary
The moving-average structure behind Spotify Technology S.A. is neutral at $523.96, with no clear ordering between short and long averages. Over a rolling month the price has lost 3.7%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 54.3 (neutral) with MACD reading bullish. Recent trading has carved out support near $470.25 and resistance around $553.77.
The shares look overvalued, trading on 30.3 times earnings above a sector average of 16.3. Consensus targets land 13.9% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 13.9% on a 18.4% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 5 — moderate. With 30-day volatility of 37.7%, a beta of 0.37 and a maximum drawdown of 40.1%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 3/10.
The shares look overvalued, trading on 30.3 times earnings above a sector average of 16.3. Consensus targets land 13.9% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 13.9% on a 18.4% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 5 — moderate. With 30-day volatility of 37.7%, a beta of 0.37 and a maximum drawdown of 40.1%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 3/10.
Top market events
- Spotify Technology S.A. stocks have been trading up by 5.15 percent amid upbeat subscriber growth and profitability...
- Spotify Technology S.A. stocks have been trading up by 5.14 percent after strong subscriber growth and podcast revenue...
- UBS remains constructive on Spotify Technology SA NYSE:SPOT and expects the streaming company to continue progressing...
Market outlook
Short term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence3/103 out of 10
Key factors
- Trading above the 200-day average of 497.84
- MACD momentum is positive
- Maximum drawdown of 40.1%
Medium term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence3/103 out of 10
Key factors
- P/E of 30.3 versus sector average of 16.3
- Trading above the 200-day average of 497.84
- Analyst targets imply +13.9% versus the current price
Long term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence3/103 out of 10
Key factors
- P/E of 30.3 versus sector average of 16.3
- Analyst targets imply +13.9% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 18.4% is healthy
Key metrics
Financial health
Revenue Growth13.90%
Profit Margin18.43%
P/E Ratio30.3
ROE44.48%
ROA12.19%
Debt/Equity5.56
P/B Ratio11.5
Op. Cash Flow$3.3B
Free Cash Flow$1.5B
Industry P/E16.3
Technical analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI54.3
Support$470.25
Resistance$553.77
MA 20$507.54
MA 50$518.89
MA 200$497.84
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.3
Valuation
Fair Value$190.62
Target Price$596.66
Upside/Downside13.87%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk assessment
Beta0.37
Volatility37.72%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.