SPH:NYSESuburban Propane Partners, L.P. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-08 - not real-time
$19.12
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Suburban Propane Partners trades at $19.12, comfortably above the 20‑day SMA (19.73) and the 50‑day SMA (19.65), indicating a short‑term bullish bias, yet the MACD histogram is negative and the RSI sits at 42, suggesting momentum is waning. Volume is decreasing and 30‑day volatility is elevated at ~24%, which could amplify price swings around the identified support at $18.86. The stock benefits from a low beta of 0.16, implying limited correlation to broader market moves, but the high dividend yield of 6.75% (payout ~66%) is currently funded by free cash flow of roughly $105 M against a modest cash balance of $4.3 M. Fundamentally, the PE ratio of 9.8 is well below the industry average of 22.1, signaling relative cheapness, yet the DCF‑derived fair value is far lower than the market price, projecting an upside/downside of –11%. The balance sheet is heavily leveraged with a debt‑to‑equity of 183, raising concerns about long‑term financial flexibility, especially as revenue declined 6.2% YoY. Overall, the company offers attractive income but faces headwinds from debt load and modest growth prospects.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price near support with bearish MACD
- Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility
- Dividend yield provides cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Low PE relative to industry suggests value
- High debt‑to‑equity limits upside potential
- Sustainable dividend supported by free cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Attractive dividend yield for income investors
- Stable operating margins and cash flow generation
- Potential for balance‑sheet deleveraging to improve risk profile
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-6.20%
Profit Margin9.57%
P/E Ratio9.8
ROE18.84%
ROA5.53%
Debt/Equity183.44
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$206.0M
Free Cash Flow$104.9M
Industry P/E22.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI41.8
Support$18.86
Resistance$20.53
MA 20$19.73
MA 50$19.65
MA 200$19.29
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.64
Valuation
Fair Value$0.14
Target Price$17.00
Upside/Downside-11.09%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.75%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.16
Volatility23.98%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.