SOUX:NASDAQDefiance Daily Target 2X Long SOUN ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time
$9.73
Latest Price
9/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Technical weakness dominates the outlook. The ETF trades at $9.73, well below its 20‑day ($11.07), 50‑day ($14.16) and 200‑day ($49.14) simple moving averages, signaling a strong bearish bias. Momentum indicators echo this view: RSI sits at 40.3, approaching oversold territory but not yet indicating a reversal, while the MACD line remains negative despite a marginal bullish histogram. Volatility is extreme, with a 30‑day rate of 115% and a beta of 6.2, meaning price swings are amplified far beyond the underlying index. The fund has suffered a catastrophic max drawdown of –97% and a YTD loss of –73.3%, reflecting the peril of daily‑leveraged exposure in a down market. High expense (1.29%) and a dividend yield that appears inflated further erode net returns. Coupled with an “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (fear‑greed index 92.88), the environment is unfavorable for a 2× long leveraged vehicle.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Price below all major moving averages
- Extreme volatility and beta
- Recent massive drawdown
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Leveraged decay risk over multiple days
- High expense ratio eroding returns
- Unfavorable market sentiment (Extreme Greed index)
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Structural bearish trend in the underlying asset
- Limited upside potential for a 2× long product
- Persistently high beta and volatility
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio1.29%
AUM$12.0M
Inception Date2025-06-23
Avg Daily Volume64,730
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield76.02%
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI40.3
Support$8.40
Resistance$13.73
MA 20$11.07
MA 50$14.16
MA 200$49.14
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Risk Assessment
Beta6.22
Volatility115.23%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.