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SOUX:NASDAQDefiance Daily Target 2X Long SOUN ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time

$9.73

Latest Price

9/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Technical weakness dominates the outlook. The ETF trades at $9.73, well below its 20‑day ($11.07), 50‑day ($14.16) and 200‑day ($49.14) simple moving averages, signaling a strong bearish bias. Momentum indicators echo this view: RSI sits at 40.3, approaching oversold territory but not yet indicating a reversal, while the MACD line remains negative despite a marginal bullish histogram. Volatility is extreme, with a 30‑day rate of 115% and a beta of 6.2, meaning price swings are amplified far beyond the underlying index. The fund has suffered a catastrophic max drawdown of –97% and a YTD loss of –73.3%, reflecting the peril of daily‑leveraged exposure in a down market. High expense (1.29%) and a dividend yield that appears inflated further erode net returns. Coupled with an “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (fear‑greed index 92.88), the environment is unfavorable for a 2× long leveraged vehicle.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Price below all major moving averages
  • Extreme volatility and beta
  • Recent massive drawdown

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Leveraged decay risk over multiple days
  • High expense ratio eroding returns
  • Unfavorable market sentiment (Extreme Greed index)

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Structural bearish trend in the underlying asset
  • Limited upside potential for a 2× long product
  • Persistently high beta and volatility

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio1.29%
AUM$12.0M
Inception Date2025-06-23
Avg Daily Volume64,730
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield76.02%

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI40.3
Support$8.40
Resistance$13.73
MA 20$11.07
MA 50$14.16
MA 200$49.14
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88

Risk Assessment

Beta6.22
Volatility115.23%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.