SONO:NASDAQSonos, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time
$14.66
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Sonos (SONO) trades at $14.66, well below its discounted cash‑flow fair value of $19.31, implying roughly a 30% upside. Forward earnings are projected at $1.02 versus trailing EPS of $0.45, driving a forward P/E of 14.4 that is markedly lower than the current trailing P/E of 32.6 and roughly in line with the industry average. The stock’s technical picture is mixed: price sits under the 200‑day SMA (15.57) indicating a bearish trend, yet the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI sits at a neutral 48, suggesting limited downside pressure. Recent strategic moves – a premium audio partnership with Škoda’s new electric vehicle and an expanded online‑to‑offline campaign in Singapore – broaden the addressable market beyond the home, supporting the 8.8% revenue growth and a solid gross margin of 46.6%. Balance sheet strength is evident with low net debt (≈$57 M) and a cash pile of $261 M, while free cash flow remains healthy at $112 M. However, the stock exhibits high 30‑day volatility (~78%) and a beta above 1, signalling price swings that could challenge short‑term investors. Overall, valuation appears attractive, fundamentals are improving, and the market sentiment is extremely bullish (Fear & Greed Index 92.9).
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- MACD bullish crossover amid bearish price trend
- High short‑term volatility and beta
- Support level at $13.54 providing downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- 30% upside to DCF fair value
- Revenue growth of 8.8% and expanding product ecosystem
- Strong analyst consensus (strong buy) and forward P/E compression
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Durable brand with recurring services revenue
- Low leverage and robust free cash flow generation
- Strategic partnerships expanding beyond the home audio market
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.80%
Profit Margin3.82%
P/E Ratio32.6
ROE14.18%
ROA6.42%
Debt/Equity14.08
P/B Ratio5.0
Op. Cash Flow$147.1M
Free Cash Flow$111.9M
Industry P/E32.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI48.5
Support$13.54
Resistance$17.60
MA 20$14.82
MA 50$14.87
MA 200$15.57
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Valuation
Fair Value$19.32
Target Price$19.13
Upside/Downside30.46%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.14
Volatility78.37%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.