SO:NYSESouthern Company (The) Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time
$94.24
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
The Southern Company trades at $94.24, which is more than double the DCF‑derived fair value of $44.42, and its forward P/E of 19.2 still exceeds the industry average of 21.8, indicating an overvalued pricing context. Operating margins of 25.8% and a solid dividend yield of 3.23% provide defensive appeal, while the RSI of 50.6 and a bullish MACD signal suggest neutral‑to‑slightly positive short‑term momentum, with price positioned between a support of $91.61 and resistance at $97.40.
However, the balance sheet shows a heavy debt load (Debt/Equity ≈ 190) and negative free cash flow, raising questions about dividend sustainability despite a 75% payout ratio. Low beta (‑0.11) and modest 30‑day volatility (18.8%) point to limited market‑risk exposure, but regulatory and debt‑related risks remain medium, making a cautious “hold” stance prudent across horizons.
However, the balance sheet shows a heavy debt load (Debt/Equity ≈ 190) and negative free cash flow, raising questions about dividend sustainability despite a 75% payout ratio. Low beta (‑0.11) and modest 30‑day volatility (18.8%) point to limited market‑risk exposure, but regulatory and debt‑related risks remain medium, making a cautious “hold” stance prudent across horizons.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Neutral technical indicators (RSI ~50, price near support)
- Current overvaluation relative to DCF and peers
- Attractive dividend yield but sustainability concerns
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Stable regulated revenue streams
- High debt burden limiting upside
- Consistent dividend income for income‑focused investors
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term defensive nature of utilities sector
- Potential capital expenditures and debt refinancing risk
- Dividend yield remains a primary attraction despite valuation premium
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.00%
Profit Margin14.46%
P/E Ratio24.1
ROE10.99%
ROA3.24%
Debt/Equity190.43
P/B Ratio2.9
Op. Cash Flow$9.8B
Free Cash Flow$-3950000128
Industry P/E21.8
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI50.6
Support$91.61
Resistance$97.40
MA 20$93.99
MA 50$95.06
MA 200$92.63
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.5
Valuation
Fair Value$44.42
Target Price$101.76
Upside/Downside7.98%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.23%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.11
Volatility18.81%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.