SMFT3:BMFBOVESPASmartfit Escola de Ginastica e Danca SA Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-21 - not real-time
R$20.12
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Smartfit is trading well below its discounted cash‑flow estimate, offering a sizable upside potential. The price sits near a recent technical support level while holding above both its short‑term and medium‑term moving averages, and the MACD has just turned bullish, suggesting a modest upward bias. Momentum indicators are neutral, and volume is on the rise, reinforcing the technical case for a potential bounce.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong top‑line growth and solid margins, but it carries a very high debt load and a payout ratio that approaches the earnings stream, raising questions about dividend sustainability. The dividend yield remains attractive, yet free cash flow is negative, and the balance sheet is leveraged. With an “Extreme Greed” sentiment reading and a favorable analyst consensus, the stock appears undervalued and positioned for a rebound, provided the firm can manage its leverage and maintain cash generation.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong top‑line growth and solid margins, but it carries a very high debt load and a payout ratio that approaches the earnings stream, raising questions about dividend sustainability. The dividend yield remains attractive, yet free cash flow is negative, and the balance sheet is leveraged. With an “Extreme Greed” sentiment reading and a favorable analyst consensus, the stock appears undervalued and positioned for a rebound, provided the firm can manage its leverage and maintain cash generation.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- price near technical support with bullish MACD crossover
- high dividend yield offering immediate return
- significant upside relative to intrinsic value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- robust revenue growth and expanding franchise network
- elevated debt-to-equity ratio limiting financial flexibility
- uncertain dividend sustainability due to negative free cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation indicates substantial undervaluation
- large cash reserves that could be deployed to deleverage
- regional expansion opportunities across Latin America
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth25.30%
Profit Margin9.00%
P/E Ratio18.1
ROE12.06%
ROA5.55%
Debt/Equity252.17
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash FlowR$2.2B
Free Cash FlowR$-261017376
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI52.7
SupportR$18.67
ResistanceR$21.45
MA 20R$20.00
MA 50R$19.31
MA 200R$21.42
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.75
Valuation
Fair ValueR$73.40
Target PriceR$31.27
Upside/Downside55.41%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.49%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.78
Volatility29.35%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.