SMFT3:BMFBOVESPASmartfit Escola de Ginastica e Danca SA Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
R$18.18
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Smartfit's shares sit at R$18.18, well below the 20‑day (R$19.92), 50‑day (R$21.34) and 200‑day (R$23.48) moving averages, signaling a bearish technical stance, while the RSI of 27.9 places the stock in oversold territory and the MACD remains bearish.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong top‑line growth (26.5% YoY), solid margins (gross 42.5%, operating 23.4%) and an attractive dividend yield of 8.14%, yet its balance sheet is heavily leveraged (debt‑to‑equity > 240) and free cash flow is slightly negative, creating sustainability concerns. The DCF fair value of R$72.1 implies a ~76% upside, analysts rate it a strong buy with a median target of R$32, and the forward PE of 8.4 suggests earnings acceleration. Despite high volatility (30% 30‑day) and decreasing volume, the low beta (0.44) tempers market‑wide risk, making the stock a compelling value play if the debt burden can be managed.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong top‑line growth (26.5% YoY), solid margins (gross 42.5%, operating 23.4%) and an attractive dividend yield of 8.14%, yet its balance sheet is heavily leveraged (debt‑to‑equity > 240) and free cash flow is slightly negative, creating sustainability concerns. The DCF fair value of R$72.1 implies a ~76% upside, analysts rate it a strong buy with a median target of R$32, and the forward PE of 8.4 suggests earnings acceleration. Despite high volatility (30% 30‑day) and decreasing volume, the low beta (0.44) tempers market‑wide risk, making the stock a compelling value play if the debt burden can be managed.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Oversold RSI indicating potential near‑term bounce
- High dividend yield offering immediate income
- Technical price well below key moving averages creating a discount entry
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Robust revenue growth and expanding footprint across Latin America
- Forward earnings expansion reflected in a low forward PE of 8.4
- Analyst consensus (13 analysts) strongly supportive with a median target of R$32
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation indicates ~76% upside potential
- Brand strength and digital fitness platform positioning for sustained growth
- Opportunity to improve leverage as cash flow stabilizes
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth26.50%
Profit Margin8.82%
P/E Ratio19.1
ROE11.51%
ROA5.31%
Debt/Equity242.81
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash FlowR$2.1B
Free Cash FlowR$-13216000
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI27.9
SupportR$0.00
ResistanceR$21.96
MA 20R$19.92
MA 50R$21.34
MA 200R$23.48
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueR$72.11
Target PriceR$32.12
Upside/Downside76.65%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield8.14%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.44
Volatility30.42%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.