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SM:NYSESM Energy Company Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time

$27.14

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: SM is trading just above its identified support around $26.5, with the 20‑day SMA (≈31.4) comfortably above the 50‑day SMA (≈30.5) indicating a bullish bias. The 14‑day RSI sits at roughly 35, hinting at near‑oversold conditions that could precede a bounce, while the MACD remains in a bearish stance. Volume has been increasing, and the Fear & Greed Index reads Extreme Greed, reflecting strong market optimism despite the mixed signals.
Fundamental backdrop: The company posted a staggering 73% revenue growth year‑over‑year and projects a forward EPS surge to roughly $8, compressing its forward P/E to about 3.4 versus an industry average of 20. A dividend yield of 3.2% with a 43% payout ratio appears sustainable given solid free cash flow. However, a high debt load and a negative operating margin temper enthusiasm. The DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $184 suggests over 50% upside from the current price, and analysts (14 in total) rate the stock as a “buy.”

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with bullish SMA alignment
  • Increasing volume and extreme greed sentiment
  • Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant revenue growth and forward EPS acceleration
  • DCF fair value indicating >50% upside
  • Analyst consensus of buy and low relative P/E

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High debt-to-equity ratio limiting financial flexibility
  • Energy sector cyclicality and regulatory headwinds
  • Sustainable dividend providing income while awaiting margin improvement

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth73.00%
Profit Margin3.62%
P/E Ratio11.5
ROE2.32%
ROA2.94%
Debt/Equity124.61
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$2.2B
Free Cash Flow$1.4B
Industry P/E20.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI35.4
Support$26.47
Resistance$35.85
MA 20$31.39
MA 50$30.50
MA 200$24.50
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.18

Valuation

Fair Value$183.66
Target Price$40.79
Upside/Downside50.28%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.24%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.38
Volatility57.90%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.