SM:NYSESM Energy Company Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-01 - not real-time
$31.03
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
SM Energy is trading in a clear bullish technical environment, with the 20‑day SMA comfortably above the 50‑day SMA and the price holding above the 200‑day SMA. The RSI sits in the low‑to‑mid 60s, indicating momentum without being overbought, while a bullish MACD crossover reinforces the upside bias. Volume has been trending lower, suggesting a cautious approach, but the price remains well above the identified support level of $24.9 and below the resistance near $31.9, leaving room for incremental gains.
Fundamentally, SM Energy appears significantly undervalued relative to its peers, with a trailing P/E around 5.5 versus an industry average near 23, and a price‑to‑book below one. The dividend yield of roughly 2.6% is supported by a modest payout ratio under 20% and solid operating cash flow, while the balance sheet shows ample cash against a sizeable but manageable debt load. Forward earnings estimates suggest improving profitability, and the low beta points to limited price volatility relative to the market, making the stock an attractive value play with dividend income.
Fundamentally, SM Energy appears significantly undervalued relative to its peers, with a trailing P/E around 5.5 versus an industry average near 23, and a price‑to‑book below one. The dividend yield of roughly 2.6% is supported by a modest payout ratio under 20% and solid operating cash flow, while the balance sheet shows ample cash against a sizeable but manageable debt load. Forward earnings estimates suggest improving profitability, and the low beta points to limited price volatility relative to the market, making the stock an attractive value play with dividend income.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (SMA crossover, MACD, RSI)
- Price positioned near support with upside to resistance
- Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation discount to industry peers
- Improving forward earnings estimates
- Stable cash flow and manageable debt profile
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend supported by cash generation
- Exposure to U.S. basins limiting geographic risk
- Energy sector commodity price volatility remains a headwind
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-17.10%
Profit Margin21.41%
P/E Ratio5.5
ROE14.32%
ROA7.01%
Debt/Equity59.31
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$2.0B
Free Cash Flow$206.9M
Industry P/E23.0
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI61.1
Support$24.91
Resistance$31.92
MA 20$28.93
MA 50$27.56
MA 200$23.76
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.89
Valuation
Fair Value$1.10
Target Price$37.62
Upside/Downside21.22%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.64%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.13
Volatility61.69%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.