SM:NYSESM Energy Company Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-26 - not real-time
$33.77
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
SM Energy is trading at $33.77, comfortably above its 20‑day ($31.36), 50‑day ($29.99) and 200‑day ($24.13) moving averages, with a bullish MACD and an RSI of 62 indicating continued momentum. Valuation metrics are attractive: a trailing P/E of 14.2 versus an industry average of 21.6, a price‑to‑book of 0.8 and a dividend yield of 2.43% with a 43% payout ratio. Fundamentally, the company posted a 73% revenue growth rate and a forward EPS estimate of $7.76, suggesting significant earnings upside. However, the balance sheet is strained, featuring a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 124.6 and a negative operating margin of -4.7%, raising concerns about leverage. The DCF fair‑value estimate of $181 and the analyst consensus target of $39.5 imply upside potential, but the extreme greed market sentiment (91.75) may be inflating short‑term expectations. Liquidity appears solid with stable volume and a market cap of $8.1 B, while the beta of –0.20 suggests limited correlation to broader market moves. Overall, the stock presents a blend of growth catalysts and value appeal, tempered by high debt and sector volatility.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, MACD bullish)
- Strong dividend yield with moderate payout
- Current price near support but volatility remains high
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Robust revenue growth of 73% and forward EPS upside
- Undervalued valuation relative to peers (low P/E, low P/B)
- Analyst consensus target indicating ~15% upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term commodity price exposure in multiple U.S. basins
- Positive free cash flow supporting debt reduction
- Potential for dividend growth if leverage is managed
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth73.00%
Profit Margin3.62%
P/E Ratio14.2
ROE2.32%
ROA2.94%
Debt/Equity124.61
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow$2.2B
Free Cash Flow$1.4B
Industry P/E21.6
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI62.7
Support$26.82
Resistance$35.88
MA 20$31.36
MA 50$30.00
MA 200$24.13
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.75
Valuation
Fair Value$180.99
Target Price$40.43
Upside/Downside19.72%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.43%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.20
Volatility54.65%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.