SKY:NYSEChampion Homes, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-01 - not real-time
$76.23
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Champion Homes (SKY) trades at $76.23, comfortably below its 20‑day SMA of $78.58 and the 50‑day SMA of $80.76, indicating short‑term weakness. The 14‑day RSI sits at 44, well under the neutral 50 mark, and the MACD histogram is negative, reinforcing a bearish technical outlook. Volatility is elevated at 45.9% over the past 30 days, while beta near 0.94 suggests the stock moves roughly in line with the market. The Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” hinting that market sentiment may be overly optimistic despite the price pressure.
Fundamentally, the company generates $2.64 B in revenue with modest 1.8% growth and solid profitability margins (gross 27%, operating 9.5%, net 8%). Return on equity of 14% and a healthy cash position of $660 M against only $119 M of debt give the balance sheet ample strength. However, the discounted cash flow fair value of $55.9 is far below the current market price, implying the stock is currently overvalued. Analyst consensus targets a median price of $100, translating to roughly 25% upside from today’s level. The lack of dividend means investors must rely on price appreciation and cash‑flow generation. Overall, the stock sits at a crossroads where technical weakness clashes with a relatively attractive long‑term earnings profile.
Fundamentally, the company generates $2.64 B in revenue with modest 1.8% growth and solid profitability margins (gross 27%, operating 9.5%, net 8%). Return on equity of 14% and a healthy cash position of $660 M against only $119 M of debt give the balance sheet ample strength. However, the discounted cash flow fair value of $55.9 is far below the current market price, implying the stock is currently overvalued. Analyst consensus targets a median price of $100, translating to roughly 25% upside from today’s level. The lack of dividend means investors must rely on price appreciation and cash‑flow generation. Overall, the stock sits at a crossroads where technical weakness clashes with a relatively attractive long‑term earnings profile.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- price below all major moving averages
- bearish MACD and RSI
- high short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- moderate revenue growth and solid cash flow
- analyst target price suggests upside
- stable balance sheet with low leverage
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- strong ROE and cash generation
- cyclical exposure to residential construction
- overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth1.80%
Profit Margin8.10%
P/E Ratio20.3
ROE14.09%
ROA7.87%
Debt/Equity7.48
P/B Ratio2.6
Op. Cash Flow$297.2M
Free Cash Flow$179.7M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI43.8
Support$71.96
Resistance$84.49
MA 20$78.58
MA 50$80.76
MA 200$79.00
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.96
Valuation
Fair Value$55.92
Target Price$95.40
Upside/Downside25.15%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.94
Volatility45.94%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.