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SIKA:SIXSika AG Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

CHF 142.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Sika AG trades around CHF 142, well below its 20‑day (CHF 153.17) and 50‑day (CHF 153.90) simple moving averages and significantly above the 200‑day SMA (CHF 177.17), indicating a bearish medium‑term price bias. The RSI of 35.1 and a bearish MACD histogram reinforce downside momentum, while the stock remains above its key support at CHF 135.75. Despite a solid dividend yield of 2.67% and a sustainable payout ratio of 55%, the company posted a 7.9% revenue decline and a 16% full‑year profit drop, which dampens growth expectations. Analysts remain optimistic, assigning a “buy” consensus and a median target of CHF 189, implying a 36% upside from current levels, yet the DCF fair value of CHF 71.5 suggests the market is considerably overvalued. Recent material news highlights a German sustainability award and a Q4 EBITDA beat, but also scrutiny over the 2026 outlook after a soft Americas finish, adding short‑term uncertainty. Overall, the stock exhibits high volatility (≈28% 30‑day) but low systematic risk (beta ≈0.35), a strong balance sheet with CHF 0.81 bn cash versus CHF 5.54 bn debt, and a stable dividend, positioning it as a value‑oriented, dividend‑focused play with elevated near‑term downside risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators (price below SMAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish)
  • Revenue contraction and profit decline
  • Current price still above support but limited upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Analyst consensus “buy” with median target CHF 189
  • Attractive dividend yield and sustainable payout
  • Potential recovery driven by sustainability award and EBITDA beat

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash flow and dividend sustainability
  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • Cyclical nature of specialty chemicals and moderate growth outlook

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-7.90%
Profit Margin9.32%
P/E Ratio21.8
ROE15.25%
ROA6.10%
Debt/Equity83.13
P/B Ratio3.4
Op. Cash FlowCHF1.7B
Free Cash FlowCHF1.2B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI35.1
SupportCHF 135.75
ResistanceCHF 162.15
MA 20CHF 153.17
MA 50CHF 153.90
MA 200CHF 177.17
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index80.61

Valuation

Fair ValueCHF 71.51
Target PriceCHF 193.81
Upside/Downside36.49%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.67%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.35
Volatility27.96%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.