SIG:ASXSigma Healthcare Ltd Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
A$2.64
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: Sigma Healthcare is trading at AUD 2.64, below its 20‑day (2.85) and 50‑day (2.94) SMAs, confirming a bearish price trend. The RSI sits at 29.9, indicating the stock is oversold, while the MACD histogram remains negative, reinforcing short‑term downside pressure.
Fundamental backdrop: The company posted AUD 9.55 bn of revenue with an impressive 180% YoY growth, yet margins are modest (gross 18.5%, operating 9.8%). A trailing P/E of 52.8 versus an industry average of 26 suggests the market is pricing in strong growth, but the DCF‑derived fair value of only AUD 0.94 points to clear overvaluation. The dividend yield of 1.5% comes with a zero payout ratio, raising questions about sustainability. Recent news highlights double‑digit sales and profit growth in H1 2026, driven by Chemist Warehouse expansion and merger synergies, providing a positive earnings narrative that partially offsets the technical weakness.
Fundamental backdrop: The company posted AUD 9.55 bn of revenue with an impressive 180% YoY growth, yet margins are modest (gross 18.5%, operating 9.8%). A trailing P/E of 52.8 versus an industry average of 26 suggests the market is pricing in strong growth, but the DCF‑derived fair value of only AUD 0.94 points to clear overvaluation. The dividend yield of 1.5% comes with a zero payout ratio, raising questions about sustainability. Recent news highlights double‑digit sales and profit growth in H1 2026, driven by Chemist Warehouse expansion and merger synergies, providing a positive earnings narrative that partially offsets the technical weakness.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just above the identified support level (AUD 2.62)
- Oversold RSI suggesting potential short‑term bounce
- Bearish MACD and downward SMA alignment
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Robust revenue growth and expansion of the Chemist Warehouse network
- High valuation multiples relative to peers and DCF fair value
- Stable trading volumes and low beta indicating limited price volatility
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Significant overvaluation (price far above DCF fair value)
- Elevated debt level (Debt‑to‑Equity ~41%) and zero free cash flow
- Uncertain dividend sustainability and potential regulatory headwinds
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth180.50%
Profit Margin6.28%
P/E Ratio52.8
Debt/Equity40.95
P/B Ratio6.2
Op. Cash FlowA$487.5M
Industry P/E26.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI29.9
SupportA$2.62
ResistanceA$3.20
MA 20A$2.85
MA 50A$2.94
MA 200A$2.97
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueA$0.94
Target PriceA$3.32
Upside/Downside25.61%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.52%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.26
Volatility24.85%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.