SHW:NYSESherwin-Williams Company (The) Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-01 - not real-time
$295.65
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Sherwin‑Williams posted a solid earnings beat with revenue up 6.8% YoY and a non‑GAAP EPS surprise of +3.6%, underscoring resilient demand despite raw‑material cost pressures. Fundamentally, the company boasts an extraordinary ROE of over 60% and healthy cash generation, yet a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 300% flags significant leverage risk.
Technically, the stock trades below its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, the RSI sits near 35 indicating a modest oversold condition, and a bearish MACD confirms downward momentum. The DCF fair‑value estimate near $95 is far below the current $295 price, suggesting the market has priced in expectations that may be hard to sustain. The dividend yield of ~1% is modest but appears sustainable given a 30% payout ratio and strong free cash flow.
Technically, the stock trades below its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, the RSI sits near 35 indicating a modest oversold condition, and a bearish MACD confirms downward momentum. The DCF fair‑value estimate near $95 is far below the current $295 price, suggesting the market has priced in expectations that may be hard to sustain. The dividend yield of ~1% is modest but appears sustainable given a 30% payout ratio and strong free cash flow.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price near recent support level
- Bearish technical indicators (below SMAs, MACD)
- Recent earnings beat supporting near‑term confidence
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Significant overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
- High leverage amplifying downside risk
- Continued bearish trend and volatility
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Unsustainable price premium given fundamentals
- Debt burden limiting strategic flexibility
- Potential regulatory headwinds in specialty chemicals
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.80%
Profit Margin10.86%
P/E Ratio28.4
ROE60.72%
ROA9.45%
Debt/Equity329.52
P/B Ratio16.4
Op. Cash Flow$3.7B
Free Cash Flow$2.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI34.6
Support$292.39
Resistance$328.99
MA 20$308.87
MA 50$319.32
MA 200$338.45
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index93.29
Valuation
Fair Value$95.22
Target Price$382.32
Upside/Downside29.32%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.05%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.84
Volatility25.81%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.