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SHW:NYSESherwin-Williams Company (The) Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-01 - not real-time

$295.65

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Sherwin‑Williams posted a solid earnings beat with revenue up 6.8% YoY and a non‑GAAP EPS surprise of +3.6%, underscoring resilient demand despite raw‑material cost pressures. Fundamentally, the company boasts an extraordinary ROE of over 60% and healthy cash generation, yet a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 300% flags significant leverage risk.
Technically, the stock trades below its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, the RSI sits near 35 indicating a modest oversold condition, and a bearish MACD confirms downward momentum. The DCF fair‑value estimate near $95 is far below the current $295 price, suggesting the market has priced in expectations that may be hard to sustain. The dividend yield of ~1% is modest but appears sustainable given a 30% payout ratio and strong free cash flow.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price near recent support level
  • Bearish technical indicators (below SMAs, MACD)
  • Recent earnings beat supporting near‑term confidence

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • High leverage amplifying downside risk
  • Continued bearish trend and volatility

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Unsustainable price premium given fundamentals
  • Debt burden limiting strategic flexibility
  • Potential regulatory headwinds in specialty chemicals

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.80%
Profit Margin10.86%
P/E Ratio28.4
ROE60.72%
ROA9.45%
Debt/Equity329.52
P/B Ratio16.4
Op. Cash Flow$3.7B
Free Cash Flow$2.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI34.6
Support$292.39
Resistance$328.99
MA 20$308.87
MA 50$319.32
MA 200$338.45
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index93.29

Valuation

Fair Value$95.22
Target Price$382.32
Upside/Downside29.32%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.05%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.84
Volatility25.81%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.