SHOP:TSXShopify, Inc. Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-01 - not real-time
CA$197.70
Latest Price
9/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Shopify Inc. is priced at CAD 197.70 and its moving averages line up in bullish order, the shorter sitting above the longer. Over a rolling month the price has gained 12.9%. Relative strength is 48.8 — neutral — and the MACD signal is bearish. Price has been bracketed by support at CAD 196.54 and resistance at CAD 221.12.
On valuation the read is overvalued — earnings multiple of 96.0 versus a 35.3 sector average, above the peer group. Consensus targets land 17.1% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 33.7% on a 14.5% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 72.7%, a beta of 1.78 and a maximum drawdown of 47.7%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 1/10 conviction.
On valuation the read is overvalued — earnings multiple of 96.0 versus a 35.3 sector average, above the peer group. Consensus targets land 17.1% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 33.7% on a 14.5% profit margin.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 72.7%, a beta of 1.78 and a maximum drawdown of 47.7%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 1/10 conviction.
Top Market Events
Shopify Inc TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP shares jumped 18% Wednesday after the e-commerce platform reported second-quarter...Shopify SHOP has crossed above a historically significant level with bullish implicationsShopify Inc TSX:SHOP is profitable and has positive free cash flow FCF .
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 181.82
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 1/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- P/E of 96.0 versus sector average of 35.3
- Trading above the 200-day average of 181.82
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 1/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 96.0 versus sector average of 35.3
- Analyst targets imply +17.1% versus the current price
- Revenue growth of +33.7%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth33.70%
Profit Margin14.53%
P/E Ratio96.0
ROE15.54%
ROA10.19%
Debt/Equity1.40
P/B Ratio14.5
Op. Cash FlowCA$2.4B
Free Cash FlowCA$1.6B
Industry P/E35.3
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI48.8
SupportCA$196.54
ResistanceCA$221.12
MA 20CA$208.61
MA 50CA$185.11
MA 200CA$181.82
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.77
Valuation
Fair ValueCA$46.15
Target PriceCA$231.49
Upside/Downside17.09%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.78
Volatility72.65%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.