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SHOP:NASDAQShopify Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time

$103.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Shopify's stock is trading well beneath its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, with a bearish MACD crossover and an RSI hovering in the low‑40s, signaling limited near‑term upside. The equity also exhibits a 30‑day volatility near 74% and a beta exceeding 2, underscoring pronounced price swings relative to the market. Valuation metrics are stretched – a price‑to‑earnings multiple that dwarfs the industry average and a discounted cash‑flow estimate that sits roughly a third of the current price – suggesting the market may be pricing in overly optimistic growth expectations.
On the fundamentals side, Shopify delivers robust top‑line growth of over 30% YoY, healthy gross and operating margins, and a strong cash position that dwarfs its modest debt load. Analysts remain bullish, maintaining a “buy” consensus and price targets well above today’s level, while recent media coverage highlights the company’s strategic AI tools and competitive positioning against larger e‑commerce platforms. The combination of solid earnings momentum and favorable sentiment provides a compelling long‑term narrative, even as short‑term technicals and valuation concerns temper immediate enthusiasm.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • price below key moving averages
  • bearish MACD and modest RSI
  • high volatility and beta

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • strong revenue and margin expansion
  • substantial cash reserves
  • analyst consensus remains positive

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • sustained top‑line growth and AI‑driven product roadmap
  • high gross and operating margins
  • strategic positioning in the e‑commerce ecosystem

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth34.30%
Profit Margin10.77%
P/E Ratio101.0
ROE11.31%
ROA9.62%
Debt/Equity1.43
P/B Ratio10.7
Op. Cash Flow$2.1B
Free Cash Flow$1.3B
Industry P/E39.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI41.4
Support$94.00
Resistance$129.39
MA 20$109.54
MA 50$116.53
MA 200$140.38
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair Value$38.74
Target Price$151.11
Upside/Downside46.71%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta2.29
Volatility73.90%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.