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SAMPO:OMXHEXSampo Oyj Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

€9.20

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

Sampo Oyj is trading at roughly €9.20, far below its DCF‑derived fair value of €28.27, implying a potential upside of over 140% while the market assigns a modest 12.4× trailing P/E versus an industry average of 17.3×. Revenue is expanding at a robust 31% year‑over‑year, and the company is generating strong cash flows (operating cash flow > €1.7 bn) with a low debt‑to‑equity of 31.7%, supporting a 45.9% payout ratio and a 3.7% dividend yield. Technical metrics show the price sitting below the 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs, with a bearish trend direction, yet the MACD histogram has turned positive and the RSI sits near the mid‑range, suggesting limited downside pressure. The recent update to Sampo’s distribution policy, emphasizing a blend of dividends and share buybacks, reinforces the commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Given the low beta (0.13) and moderate 30‑day volatility (~19%), the stock exhibits defensive characteristics despite its growth profile, making it an attractive candidate for investors seeking both income and capital appreciation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price is below short‑term moving averages indicating bearish pressure
  • Support level near €8.92 provides a floor
  • Attractive dividend yield cushions short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamentals show strong revenue growth and cash generation
  • Significant valuation gap to DCF fair value
  • Sustainable dividend and upcoming share buyback program

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑run upside potential exceeds 140% based on intrinsic value
  • Low leverage and high ROE indicate durable profitability
  • Diversified geographic footprint reduces concentration risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth31.40%
Profit Margin18.40%
P/E Ratio12.4
ROE26.37%
ROA6.30%
Debt/Equity31.70
P/B Ratio3.0
Op. Cash Flow€1.8B
Free Cash Flow€1.6B
Industry P/E17.3

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI46.6
Support€8.92
Resistance€9.40
MA 20€9.15
MA 50€9.50
MA 200€9.63
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index76.86

Valuation

Fair Value€28.27
Target Price€10.54
Upside/Downside14.53%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.70%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.13
Volatility19.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.