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RUN:NASDAQSunrun Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-29 - not real-time

$12.97

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Sunrun’s price sits below its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, indicating short‑term weakness, while the 20‑day SMA is also under the 200‑day SMA, confirming a broader bearish bias. The RSI hovers around the 50‑point mid‑range, suggesting no extreme overbought or oversold condition, and the MACD histogram has turned positive, giving a modest bullish signal despite the overall downtrend. Beta is exceptionally high at nearly three, and 30‑day volatility exceeds 60%, flagging pronounced price swings. On the valuation side, the trailing P/E is well under 10, dramatically lower than the industry average of roughly 38, and the price‑to‑book ratio sits just below 1, implying the market is pricing the stock at a discount to its net asset value. The Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” and analysts project a >50% upside, reinforcing the undervalued narrative. Volume is trending upward, providing liquidity support even as the stock trades near its $11.67 support level and below the $14.72 resistance.
Fundamentally, revenue has more than doubled year‑over‑year, yet margins remain thin and cash flow is negative, with a sizable debt load that pushes the debt‑to‑equity ratio above 250. The company announced a Q1 earnings date and highlighted its position as the nation’s largest provider of home battery storage, while a recent federal court decision temporarily lifted a blockade on new solar projects, injecting short‑term sentiment positivity. No dividend is paid, reflecting the focus on growth reinvestment. Overall, the stock blends strong growth prospects with significant financial and market risks.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Technical bearish bias with price below short‑term moving averages
  • Positive MACD histogram suggesting possible near‑term bounce
  • Elevated beta and volatility increasing downside risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant revenue growth and sector tailwinds in residential solar
  • Undervalued valuation metrics relative to industry peers
  • Recent favorable regulatory news boosting market sentiment

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Secular shift toward renewable energy and home battery storage
  • Market pricing below book value indicating a margin of safety
  • Long‑term upside potential despite current cash‑flow challenges

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth123.50%
Profit Margin15.22%
P/E Ratio7.6
ROE-22.06%
ROA-0.37%
Debt/Equity297.88
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$-421440000
Free Cash Flow$-2649873408
Industry P/E37.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI49.4
Support$11.67
Resistance$14.72
MA 20$12.92
MA 50$13.81
MA 200$16.32
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.59

Valuation

Target Price$19.67
Upside/Downside51.63%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta2.89
Volatility63.58%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.