ROST:NASDAQRoss Stores, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time
$234.81
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Ross Stores (ROST) posted a spectacular first‑quarter, with comparable sales up 17% and EPS rising 37% year‑over‑year, driving the stock to close at $234.81, just $0.99 below its 52‑week high. The price sits above the 20‑day SMA ($221.48) and the 50‑day SMA ($219.56) and remains well above the 200‑day SMA ($183.49), confirming a clear bullish trend. Technical momentum is reinforced by an RSI of 65.6, still below overbought levels, and a bullish MACD histogram (+0.42) with the line crossing above the signal. Volume is on an increasing trend, supporting the price advance toward the identified resistance at $235.80. The company generated $22.75 B in revenue, a 12.2% growth rate, and delivered an operating margin of 12.3% and net profit margin of 9.4%.
Fundamentally, ROST trades at a forward P/E of 28.6 and a price‑to‑book of 12.2, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $108, indicating the market is pricing in strong growth expectations. Nevertheless, the balance sheet remains solid with a low payout ratio of 24.5%, a dividend yield of 0.82%, and ample cash generation (free cash flow $1.64 B) to sustain the dividend. Analyst consensus (17 ratings) remains a “Buy” with a median target of $265, implying ~9% upside from current levels. The off‑price retail model continues to attract price‑sensitive shoppers, bolstering the company’s high ROE of 36.7% and resilience amid inflationary pressures. Overall, the stock combines robust earnings momentum with a defensively positioned business, but valuation remains stretched.
Fundamentally, ROST trades at a forward P/E of 28.6 and a price‑to‑book of 12.2, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $108, indicating the market is pricing in strong growth expectations. Nevertheless, the balance sheet remains solid with a low payout ratio of 24.5%, a dividend yield of 0.82%, and ample cash generation (free cash flow $1.64 B) to sustain the dividend. Analyst consensus (17 ratings) remains a “Buy” with a median target of $265, implying ~9% upside from current levels. The off‑price retail model continues to attract price‑sensitive shoppers, bolstering the company’s high ROE of 36.7% and resilience amid inflationary pressures. Overall, the stock combines robust earnings momentum with a defensively positioned business, but valuation remains stretched.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong Q1 earnings beat
- Bullish technical momentum near 20‑day SMA
- Price approaching resistance with limited near‑term upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Consistent revenue and EPS growth
- Robust cash flow supporting dividend and reinvestment
- Off‑price retail model resilient in inflationary environment
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- High ROE and efficient capital allocation
- Strategic store expansion and brand positioning
- Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth12.20%
Profit Margin9.43%
P/E Ratio35.6
ROE36.68%
ROA11.11%
Debt/Equity84.24
P/B Ratio12.2
Op. Cash Flow$3.0B
Free Cash Flow$1.6B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI65.6
Support$208.20
Resistance$235.80
MA 20$221.48
MA 50$219.56
MA 200$183.49
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Fair Value$107.89
Target Price$256.18
Upside/Downside9.10%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.82%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.81
Volatility32.54%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.