RIVN:NASDAQRivian Automotive, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
$14.22
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Rivian’s stock is trading below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages, with a mid‑range RSI around 45 and a bearish MACD histogram, signalling short‑term weakness. The share price sits near the lower end of its recent range, above the identified support at $12.65 but well under the $16.99 resistance, while the beta of ~1.7 and 30‑day volatility above 50% point to amplified market swings.
On the fundamentals side, the company is still loss‑making with negative operating and profit margins, substantial cash burn and a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding 100%, yet it posted 11% revenue growth and beat Q1 estimates as R2 production ramps up. Recent news highlights renewed interest in the R2 customization program and a $400 M funding boost for its Mind Robotics venture, offering a potential catalyst, but risk‑off sentiment in high‑beta consumer discretionary stocks continues to pressure the share price.
On the fundamentals side, the company is still loss‑making with negative operating and profit margins, substantial cash burn and a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding 100%, yet it posted 11% revenue growth and beat Q1 estimates as R2 production ramps up. Recent news highlights renewed interest in the R2 customization program and a $400 M funding boost for its Mind Robotics venture, offering a potential catalyst, but risk‑off sentiment in high‑beta consumer discretionary stocks continues to pressure the share price.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators (price below SMAs, MACD bearish)
- High beta and volatility amplifying downside risk
- Recent risk‑off pressure on high‑beta consumer discretionary names
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- R2 production ramp and earnings beat suggest improving operational outlook
- Continued negative cash flow and high leverage limit upside
- Support level provides a floor while market sentiment stabilizes
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term EV market growth and strategic partnership with Amazon
- Potential upside of ~27% indicated by analyst price targets
- R2 platform could unlock higher margins and revenue diversification
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth11.40%
Profit Margin-63.62%
P/E Ratio-7.5
ROE-65.69%
ROA-16.02%
Debt/Equity118.15
P/B Ratio4.1
Op. Cash Flow$-1294000000
Free Cash Flow$-1302749952
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI45.4
Support$12.65
Resistance$17.00
MA 20$14.56
MA 50$15.29
MA 200$15.37
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Target Price$18.15
Upside/Downside27.66%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.67
Volatility50.23%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.