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RIVN:NASDAQRivian Automotive, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

$14.22

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Rivian’s stock is trading below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages, with a mid‑range RSI around 45 and a bearish MACD histogram, signalling short‑term weakness. The share price sits near the lower end of its recent range, above the identified support at $12.65 but well under the $16.99 resistance, while the beta of ~1.7 and 30‑day volatility above 50% point to amplified market swings.
On the fundamentals side, the company is still loss‑making with negative operating and profit margins, substantial cash burn and a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding 100%, yet it posted 11% revenue growth and beat Q1 estimates as R2 production ramps up. Recent news highlights renewed interest in the R2 customization program and a $400 M funding boost for its Mind Robotics venture, offering a potential catalyst, but risk‑off sentiment in high‑beta consumer discretionary stocks continues to pressure the share price.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators (price below SMAs, MACD bearish)
  • High beta and volatility amplifying downside risk
  • Recent risk‑off pressure on high‑beta consumer discretionary names

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • R2 production ramp and earnings beat suggest improving operational outlook
  • Continued negative cash flow and high leverage limit upside
  • Support level provides a floor while market sentiment stabilizes

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term EV market growth and strategic partnership with Amazon
  • Potential upside of ~27% indicated by analyst price targets
  • R2 platform could unlock higher margins and revenue diversification

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth11.40%
Profit Margin-63.62%
P/E Ratio-7.5
ROE-65.69%
ROA-16.02%
Debt/Equity118.15
P/B Ratio4.1
Op. Cash Flow$-1294000000
Free Cash Flow$-1302749952

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI45.4
Support$12.65
Resistance$17.00
MA 20$14.56
MA 50$15.29
MA 200$15.37
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Target Price$18.15
Upside/Downside27.66%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.67
Volatility50.23%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.