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RIO:LSERio Tinto plc Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-08 - not real-time

£7,606.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Rio Tinto is trading well above its short‑ and medium‑term moving averages, confirming a bullish price direction, while the MACD line sits below its signal, hinting at emerging downside momentum. The RSI hovers near the middle of its range, suggesting neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions, and the stock’s beta remains low, indicating modest price sensitivity to market swings, though recent volatility has been elevated.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid revenue growth and healthy operating margins, backed by robust operating and free cash flow that comfortably cover its dividend. The dividend yield is attractive and the payout ratio is sustainable, while strategic moves into autonomous drilling and low‑carbon aluminium production position Rio for long‑term operational efficiency. However, the discounted cash‑flow model points to a fair value well below the current market price, flagging the stock as overvalued in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish price trend above key moving averages
  • Bearish MACD divergence indicating potential pullback
  • Current overvaluation relative to DCF fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong cash generation and sustainable dividend
  • Strategic automation and decarbonisation projects
  • Valuation gap remains but fundamentals are solid

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term commodity demand and diversified asset base
  • Low beta and defensive dividend profile
  • Growth potential from technology and low‑carbon initiatives

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth14.60%
Profit Margin17.29%
P/E Ratio16.8
ROE16.40%
ROA7.86%
Debt/Equity35.43
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash Flow£16.8B
Free Cash Flow£3.5B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI45.8
Support£6,773.00
Resistance£9,117.00
MA 20£7,883.85
MA 50£7,499.98
MA 200£6,207.31
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.54

Valuation

Fair Value£4,329.20
Target Price£7,531.83
Upside/Downside-0.98%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.95%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.39
Volatility34.52%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.