RGTZ:NASDAQDefiance Daily Target 2x Short RGTI ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$12.82
Latest Price
9/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
The fund is trading at $12.82, well under its 20‑day SMA of 12.72 and far below the 50‑day (18.62) and 200‑day (19.63) averages, indicating a strong bearish bias. RSI sits at 46, suggesting neutral momentum, but the MACD histogram is positive (0.46) despite both lines being negative, hinting at a tentative short‑term bounce that is unlikely to reverse the longer‑term downtrend. Volume is increasing, yet daily volume (~399k) trails the 10‑day average of 4 million, pointing to modest liquidity. Volatility is extreme at 193 % over 30 days, and beta of -7.38 amplifies inverse market moves, making price swings severe. The fund has suffered a max drawdown of -74.9 % and a YTD return of -37.7 %, while the expense ratio of 1.29 % further erodes net performance. Combined with an “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (Fear‑Greed Index 89.36), the quantitative picture warns of heightened risk and limited upside for investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bearish price trend below all moving averages
- Extreme volatility and high negative beta
- YTD loss exceeding 35%
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustained bearish momentum
- Potential for further drawdown given historic max drawdown
- Leveraged inverse exposure may diverge from underlying index over time
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Structural risk of leveraged inverse products
- High expense ratio erodes long‑term returns
- Absence of recent news or catalyst to support price recovery
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio1.29%
AUM$22.1M
Inception Date2025-10-08
Avg Daily Volume4,058,730
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI46.2
Support$8.58
Resistance$18.09
MA 20$12.72
MA 50$18.62
MA 200$19.63
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.36
Risk Assessment
Beta-7.38
Volatility193.08%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.