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RGTZ:NASDAQDefiance Daily Target 2x Short RGTI ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$12.82

Latest Price

9/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

The fund is trading at $12.82, well under its 20‑day SMA of 12.72 and far below the 50‑day (18.62) and 200‑day (19.63) averages, indicating a strong bearish bias. RSI sits at 46, suggesting neutral momentum, but the MACD histogram is positive (0.46) despite both lines being negative, hinting at a tentative short‑term bounce that is unlikely to reverse the longer‑term downtrend. Volume is increasing, yet daily volume (~399k) trails the 10‑day average of 4 million, pointing to modest liquidity. Volatility is extreme at 193 % over 30 days, and beta of -7.38 amplifies inverse market moves, making price swings severe. The fund has suffered a max drawdown of -74.9 % and a YTD return of -37.7 %, while the expense ratio of 1.29 % further erodes net performance. Combined with an “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (Fear‑Greed Index 89.36), the quantitative picture warns of heightened risk and limited upside for investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish price trend below all moving averages
  • Extreme volatility and high negative beta
  • YTD loss exceeding 35%

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained bearish momentum
  • Potential for further drawdown given historic max drawdown
  • Leveraged inverse exposure may diverge from underlying index over time

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Structural risk of leveraged inverse products
  • High expense ratio erodes long‑term returns
  • Absence of recent news or catalyst to support price recovery

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio1.29%
AUM$22.1M
Inception Date2025-10-08
Avg Daily Volume4,058,730
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI46.2
Support$8.58
Resistance$18.09
MA 20$12.72
MA 50$18.62
MA 200$19.63
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.36

Risk Assessment

Beta-7.38
Volatility193.08%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.