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RGTI:NASDAQRigetti Computing, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-28 - not real-time

$14.11

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is trading at $14.11, well below its 20‑day SMA of 15.97 and far under the 50‑day SMA of 19.29, indicating a short‑term bearish bias. The RSI sits at 38, suggesting modest oversold pressure, while the MACD shows a bullish histogram (+0.04) that could foreshadow a brief technical bounce. Support is anchored at $13.41 and resistance near $19.74, leaving the stock perched just above its nearest floor. Volatility is extreme at 85% 30‑day and beta exceeds 3.7, amplifying price swings.
Fundamentally, the company posted a staggering 199% revenue growth to $10.0 M but remains loss‑making with a negative operating margin of -5.9% and a forward PE of -70. Valuation metrics are stretched: price‑to‑sales of 467× and price‑to‑book of 8×**.** The balance sheet is relatively solid, with $418 M in cash versus $6.8 M of debt, yet free cash flow is negative. Recent material news highlights a $5 M NSF‑funded delivery of a 9‑qubit Novera system to the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, underscoring progress in its quantum hardware roadmap but offering no immediate earnings lift.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price below 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs indicating bearish momentum
  • Extreme 30‑day volatility and high beta increasing downside risk
  • Support near $13.41 limiting immediate downside but no clear catalyst

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of ~200% and a strategic NSF‑funded quantum hardware delivery
  • Strong cash position relative to minimal debt
  • Analyst consensus of "Buy" with median target price of $30

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term market potential for quantum computing services (QCaaS)
  • Roadmap toward higher‑qubit systems (84‑qubit Ankaa‑3) expanding addressable market
  • Current valuation discount to target upside of >100% despite profitability challenges

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth198.90%
P/E Ratio-70.2
ROE-57.09%
ROA-12.09%
Debt/Equity1.16
P/B Ratio8.0
Op. Cash Flow$-61108000
Free Cash Flow$-6209875
Industry P/E31.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI38.1
Support$13.41
Resistance$19.74
MA 20$15.97
MA 50$19.29
MA 200$22.48
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index87.63

Valuation

Target Price$30.07
Upside/Downside113.10%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta3.72
Volatility85.24%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.