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RBLX:NYSERoblox Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

$56.75

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Roblox posted $4.9 bn of revenue with a 43% YoY increase, yet margins remain deeply negative (operating ‑25%, profit ‑22%) and the balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 480, flagging significant financial strain. The stock trades at $56.75, essentially matching the DCF‑derived fair value of $55.84, but valuation multiples are extreme (P/B ≈ 102) and earnings are still in the red, underscoring an over‑priced risk profile. Technicals are bearish: price sits below the 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs, RSI is at 34 (oversold), MACD is bearish, and volume is trending down, with the nearest support at $55.89 and resistance near $71.53. The market sentiment is in “greed” mode (Fear‑Greed Index 72), but volatility is soaring at 80% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1.2, indicating heightened systematic risk. Recent headlines highlight continued revenue and user growth, providing a growth narrative that tempers the downside but does not resolve the profitability and balance‑sheet concerns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI suggests potential bounce near support
  • Revenue growth remains robust
  • Technical bearishness tempered by low valuation gap to DCF

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Continued negative margins and high debt load
  • Volatility and decreasing volume raise execution risk
  • Growth trajectory may not translate to profitability without strategic shifts

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained user and revenue expansion in the gaming ecosystem
  • Potential for monetization improvements and cost efficiencies
  • Long‑term upside if the company can convert growth into positive cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth43.20%
Profit Margin-21.78%
P/E Ratio-41.6
ROE-367.22%
ROA-9.21%
Debt/Equity480.75
P/B Ratio101.9
Op. Cash Flow$1.8B
Free Cash Flow$1.0B
Industry P/E17.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI34.2
Support$55.89
Resistance$71.53
MA 20$63.98
MA 50$70.10
MA 200$102.00
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.71

Valuation

Fair Value$55.84
Target Price$107.23
Upside/Downside88.95%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.28
Volatility80.07%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.