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RBA:TSXRB Global, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

CA$140.30

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

RB Global trades at C$140.3, just below its 20‑day SMA (C$141.5) but under its 50‑day SMA (C$148.9), indicating short‑term weakness while the MACD histogram is positive and the signal is bullish, hinting at a possible technical rebound. The stock’s RSI sits at 45, suggesting neutral momentum, yet the 30‑day volatility is high at ~49% and beta is modest (0.68), reflecting a volatile yet not overly market‑correlated profile. Fundamentally, the company appears overvalued – its trailing PE of 50.6 far exceeds the industry average of 29.4, and the DCF‑derived fair value of C$53.2 implies a ~28% downside from current levels. Earnings missed expectations (Q4 EPS $0.586 vs $0.99 consensus) despite a 10% rise in adjusted EBITDA and a 4% increase in gross transaction value, underscoring a earnings quality gap. The balance sheet is leveraged, with a debt‑to‑equity of 73% and total debt of C$4.4 bn dwarfing cash of C$0.53 bn, though operating cash flow remains healthy. The dividend yield of 1.17% and a payout ratio of 59% are modest, offering limited income support.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Technical proximity to support (C$131.9) and bullish MACD signal
  • Recent earnings miss creating short‑term price pressure
  • High short‑term volatility limiting upside potential

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant overvaluation relative to DCF fair value and peers
  • Elevated PE multiples and widening gap to analyst target (~C$100)
  • Heavy debt load that may constrain reinvestment and margin expansion

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic AI‑driven initiatives and 5‑8% GTV growth outlook for 2026
  • Stable, though modest, dividend yielding income
  • Strong operating cash flow that can gradually improve leverage

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.40%
Profit Margin9.33%
P/E Ratio50.6
ROE7.26%
ROA3.95%
Debt/Equity72.87
P/B Ratio3.4
Op. Cash FlowCA$978.2M
Free Cash FlowCA$786.4M
Industry P/E29.4

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI45.3
SupportCA$131.91
ResistanceCA$161.92
MA 20CA$141.52
MA 50CA$148.86
MA 200CA$147.81
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Valuation

Fair ValueCA$53.23
Target PriceCA$100.34
Upside/Downside-28.48%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.17%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.68
Volatility48.95%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.