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RACE:NYSEFerrari N.V. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-24 - not real-time

$348.24

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock trades above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages but remains well below the 200‑day average, indicating a longer‑term bearish bias. Momentum signals are mixed – RSI sits in the mid‑50s and the MACD histogram has turned positive, suggesting a short‑term bullish tilt, yet volume has been decreasing and 30‑day volatility is above 30%, underscoring heightened price swings.
Fundamental backdrop & news: Ferrari delivers premium margins (gross > 50%, operating ~30%) and an exceptional ROE near 42%, but revenue growth is modest at low‑single‑digit levels. The balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity around 70% and a dividend yield of just over 1% with a payout ratio near one‑third, indicating dividend sustainability. Recent Q1 results missed EPS expectations and guidance was trimmed, pressuring the share price, while the company rolled out the second tranche of a €250 million share‑buyback, signaling confidence in cash generation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Q1 earnings miss and lowered guidance
  • Bearish longer‑term trend with price below 200‑day SMA
  • Elevated volatility and decreasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Ongoing share‑buyback program supporting price floor
  • Strong cash flow and sustainable dividend
  • Valuation still premium despite modest upside to analyst targets

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Iconic brand with high pricing power and ultra‑high ROE
  • Dividend sustainability and continued buyback commitments through 2030
  • Long‑term demand for luxury performance cars remains resilient

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.20%
Profit Margin22.19%
P/E Ratio33.3
ROE41.97%
ROA13.08%
Debt/Equity72.25
P/B Ratio13.1
Op. Cash Flow$2.4B
Free Cash Flow$985.9M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI56.0
Support$319.72
Resistance$353.28
MA 20$336.66
MA 50$339.77
MA 200$388.32
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair Value$77.27
Target Price$438.35
Upside/Downside25.87%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.21%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.89
Volatility33.38%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.