RACE:NYSEFerrari N.V. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-24 - not real-time
$348.24
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock trades above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages but remains well below the 200‑day average, indicating a longer‑term bearish bias. Momentum signals are mixed – RSI sits in the mid‑50s and the MACD histogram has turned positive, suggesting a short‑term bullish tilt, yet volume has been decreasing and 30‑day volatility is above 30%, underscoring heightened price swings.
Fundamental backdrop & news: Ferrari delivers premium margins (gross > 50%, operating ~30%) and an exceptional ROE near 42%, but revenue growth is modest at low‑single‑digit levels. The balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity around 70% and a dividend yield of just over 1% with a payout ratio near one‑third, indicating dividend sustainability. Recent Q1 results missed EPS expectations and guidance was trimmed, pressuring the share price, while the company rolled out the second tranche of a €250 million share‑buyback, signaling confidence in cash generation.
Fundamental backdrop & news: Ferrari delivers premium margins (gross > 50%, operating ~30%) and an exceptional ROE near 42%, but revenue growth is modest at low‑single‑digit levels. The balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity around 70% and a dividend yield of just over 1% with a payout ratio near one‑third, indicating dividend sustainability. Recent Q1 results missed EPS expectations and guidance was trimmed, pressuring the share price, while the company rolled out the second tranche of a €250 million share‑buyback, signaling confidence in cash generation.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Q1 earnings miss and lowered guidance
- Bearish longer‑term trend with price below 200‑day SMA
- Elevated volatility and decreasing volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Ongoing share‑buyback program supporting price floor
- Strong cash flow and sustainable dividend
- Valuation still premium despite modest upside to analyst targets
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Iconic brand with high pricing power and ultra‑high ROE
- Dividend sustainability and continued buyback commitments through 2030
- Long‑term demand for luxury performance cars remains resilient
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.20%
Profit Margin22.19%
P/E Ratio33.3
ROE41.97%
ROA13.08%
Debt/Equity72.25
P/B Ratio13.1
Op. Cash Flow$2.4B
Free Cash Flow$985.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI56.0
Support$319.72
Resistance$353.28
MA 20$336.66
MA 50$339.77
MA 200$388.32
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Fair Value$77.27
Target Price$438.35
Upside/Downside25.87%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.21%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.89
Volatility33.38%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.